On the night of September 3-4, the leading cryptocurrency made a decisive push, testing the $82,000 level. After a local correction, the asset is posting a solid daily gain of roughly 4%, trading around $81,000. This momentum has pulled the market out of a prolonged two-week consolidation that had kept investors on edge.
Altcoins pick up the baton
Following Bitcoin, Ethereum also showed confidence, breaking through the psychologically important mark of $2,500 with a 5% gain. The broader market is also displaying "green" dynamics: XRP strengthened by 6%, BNB added 4%, and SOL rose by 3%. Such synchronicity points to an influx of liquidity rather than targeted speculation in individual assets.
The key driver of this move has been institutional investors. According to my data, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest daily inflow since January, attracting $730 million. Ether funds were not left behind either, adding $141 million to their portfolios. This is a powerful signal of renewed appetite from large capital.
The mechanics of the surge: futures vs. spot
A wave of liquidations added fuel to this rally. Over 24 hours, the volume of forced position closures reached $536 million, with the vast majority—$457 million—coming from short sellers. This is a classic short squeeze scenario, where forced buybacks to close positions drive the price even higher.
The Fear and Greed Index jumped to 75 points, indicating the dominance of "greed" and a positive sentiment among market participants.
Assessing the situation: bullish signal or trap?
However, not everything is so clear-cut. Leading analysts urge caution. A technical analyst under the pseudonym Darkfost notes that Bitcoin is at a "pivotal stage between a genuine bullish recovery and a continuation of the correction." According to him, the current rise is driven by derivatives, while spot demand is shrinking. The balance of power leans in favor of buyers, but for sustained momentum, real demand needs to join the speculative play.
Specialists at CryptoQuant hold a similar view, stating that "everything around Bitcoin looks bullish, except for buyers." Their bull trend index stands at 70, and the price has risen 24% over the month, but this growth is the result of short position closures, not the emergence of a new wave of buyers. They emphasize that only a confident hold above $83,000 will confirm a bull market; until then, we are dealing merely with a rally.
Michaël van de Poppe questions the longevity of the current rally. He suggests that we may have already experienced the mid-cycle correction and are now on the brink of a growth phase similar to 2016-2017. If the four-year pattern persists, then the current dynamics promise to make this cycle extremely interesting.
My analysis: Record inflows into ETFs are undeniably a bullish fundamental signal that cannot be ignored. However, the current rise, supported mainly by liquidations, looks fragile. Until we see sustained growth in spot market volumes, every upward move should be viewed with caution, awaiting confirmation at the $83,000 level.