Volatility in financial markets is gaining momentum. By Friday, the probability of a key rate hike by the US Federal Reserve at the September meeting had collapsed to 50%. For comparison: as recently as Thursday, this figure stood at 70%, and a week earlier it had even dropped to 37%. Such sharp swings in expectations are a vivid indicator of investor nervousness.
Judging by federal funds futures, the market is now almost evenly split: some participants are pricing in the rate staying in the 3.50–3.75% range, while others expect a 25-basis-point hike to 3.75–4.00%. Notably, longer-term forecasts have also shifted: at the start of the week, the market allowed for a second tightening step by December 2026, but now the main scenario of a rise to 4.00–4.25% has been pushed back to March 2027.
Oil, Iran, and inflation as drivers of uncertainty
Such a sharp shift in sentiment is no coincidence. The key factor remains geopolitical tension around Iran, which directly affects oil prices and Treasury yields. Until investors receive fresh inflation data, it is premature to talk about stabilization. Even within the Fed itself, there is no consensus: Chairman Jerome Powell faced polarizing views at the recent Jackson Hole meeting regarding the need for further policy tightening.
Bitcoin, as an asset highly sensitive to liquidity, reacts keenly to these signals. Last week, the price broke above the $80,000 mark for the first time on news of a possible end to the conflict in the Middle East, and by Friday it had settled around $81,000, gaining about 5% in a day. The reduced probability of a rate hike eases pressure on the dollar and yields, creating a favorable backdrop for risk assets.
The continuation of the upward trend until the Fed's decision on September 16 will directly depend on developments around Iran and the release of new inflation data. In the coming days, the market will be especially sensitive to any headlines capable of shifting the fragile balance of expectations.
My view: Bitcoin's current dynamics confirm its status as a macroeconomic asset, but one should not forget that the rate remains just one of many factors. At this level of uncertainty, corrections are inevitable, and the key support level right now is the psychological mark of $80,000. A sustained break above $82,000 would open the path to new highs, but that requires a clearer signal from the Fed.