The market is once again demonstrating extreme sensitivity to U.S. monetary policy. In just one day, the probability of a Federal Reserve key rate hike at the September meeting has plummeted from 70% to 50%. Just a week ago, this figure had dropped to 37%, reflecting the extreme instability of investor expectations.
Market Split Ahead of the Fed's Verdict
Analyzing futures market data, I see that traders are almost evenly divided. Roughly half of participants are pricing in a hold of the rate in the 3.50–3.75% range, while the other half expects a 25-basis-point hike—to 3.75–4.00%. Notably, as recently as Thursday, the consensus was clearly tilted toward tightening.
Moreover, the trajectory of further steps has also changed. The market now believes that reaching the 4.00–4.25% level will not occur before March 2027. At the start of the week, futures were pricing in this scenario as early as December 2026. Such a shift suggests that investors are beginning to doubt the regulator's resolve.
The Iranian Factor and Oil Market Swings
This volatility in expectations is directly linked to the dynamics of oil prices and bond yields, which, in turn, depend on the escalation around Iran. As long as geopolitical uncertainty persists, the market will remain in limbo awaiting fresh inflation data.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faced polarizing opinions regarding next steps at a recent meeting in Jackson Hole. There is no unity within the regulator itself—the question of whether to continue tightening remains open.
Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, is sensitive to these signals. This week, the price broke through the $80,000 mark for the first time on news of a potential resolution to the Iranian conflict, and on Friday it settled around $81,000, gaining about 5% in a day. The reduced likelihood of a rate hike eases pressure on Treasury bonds and the dollar, creating a favorable backdrop for the leading cryptocurrency.
The persistence of the upward trend until the Fed's decision on September 16 will depend on the development of the geopolitical situation and the macroeconomic reports due in the coming days. The market is currently at a bifurcation point, and any new piece of information could radically alter the balance of power.
From my perspective, the current dynamics of bitcoin are not merely a speculative rebound but a reassessment of risks on a global scale. If the Fed takes a pause, we could see a sustained move toward new local highs; however, in the event of an unexpected tightening, the correction could be swift.