The first cryptocurrency continues to demonstrate impressive momentum, updating daily highs near the $82,100 mark. However, it failed to hold these levels — the asset pulled back to $81,000. Over the past 24 hours, growth amounted to 4.5%, confirming the strength of the August bullish impulse. Yet, despite market optimism, experts advise not to let their guard down.
A cautious view from Fidelity
Analysts at Fidelity Digital Assets urge not to view the current surge as an unequivocal end to the bearish phase. In their analysis, they note that August was the best month for bitcoin since November 2024. At the same time, Ethereum and Solana posted even more significant gains over the same period, pointing to a broad spectrum of buying interest.
Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, emphasizes that the current market structure has historical parallels. Sharp upward moves in the past were invariably preceded by a period of low volatility and accumulation. It is precisely such a phase that was observed from June to late August, laying the groundwork for the current move.
The four-year cycle theory under question
Some traders still rely on the theory of bitcoin's four-year cycle. According to this model, the price bottom in a bear market historically forms roughly once every four years. If we count from the November 2022 low, the next significant bottom could fall in November 2026. However, Kuiper warns against excessive rigidity on this matter.
He notes that this pattern has never worked with month-level precision. The cycle could have already ended in July, but the formation of a new low before the end of the current year cannot be ruled out either. This makes the theory of little use for precise entry positioning.
Signs of a shift in sentiment
At the same time, not all analysts are so conservative in their outlook. In the view of a number of experts, the bearish phase ended back in August. A key signal is the fact that even negative news, including the incident with Coldcard hardware wallets, failed to crash the market. This may indicate exhaustion among sellers.
An additional supporting factor is the growing interest in stablecoins and the sector of tokenization of real-world assets. The development of these areas, in my opinion, points to a strengthening of the network's fundamental metrics, even if bitcoin's price does not yet fully reflect this positive trend. Fidelity also notes that the correlation between price and the level of asset adoption is beginning to converge again, and it is this indicator that investors should watch until the end of the year.
My comment: The current dynamics are indeed encouraging, but Fidelity's caution is quite justified. The cryptocurrency market has historically been prone to false breakouts, and confirmation of a new bullish trend will require sustained holding above key levels amid growing institutional demand.