The first half of the year proved to be a turning point for public bitcoin miners. The combined realized hashrate fell by 56 EH/s, equivalent to a 15% decline. However, this is not so much a shutdown of capacity as its conversion: a significant portion of equipment and energy has been redirected to high-performance computing (HPC) and servicing AI workloads.
AI brings in more than mining
In the second quarter, disclosed revenue from HPC and artificial intelligence jumped 52% quarter-over-quarter. For a number of companies, income from colocation and cloud services exceeded bitcoin mining proceeds for the first time. This is not just diversification, but a shift in business model. However, entering this market requires enormous investment: total infrastructure transformation costs exceeded $30 billion.
The gap between capital expenditures and current revenue is especially telling. For six infrastructure providers reporting stable HPC income, corporate capex was nearly 15 times their total revenue for the period. This indicates that players are betting on the long term, investing in infrastructure that will only begin to pay off in a few years.
Economics: HPC vs. ASIC
Analysis shows that HPC services are significantly more profitable than traditional mining. For six providers, the revenue metric ranged from $86 to $300 per MWh, with a median of around $180. For AI clouds, the average estimate reaches $940.74 per MWh. By comparison, the flagship Bitmain Antminer S23 generates only about $179.13 per MWh, while the older S21 Pro model brings in $113.45.
However, comparing these earning models directly is not entirely correct. HPC colocation is typically built on multi-year contracts and often allows electricity costs to be passed on to the client. Mining, meanwhile, remains hostage to bitcoin price volatility, network difficulty, and fees. Interestingly, even Zcash mining on the Z15 Pro device is currently temporarily outpacing HPC in profitability ($585.61 per MWh), but such returns are extremely unstable compared with infrastructure contracts.
The example of MARA Holdings, the largest American mining company, is telling: it ended the second quarter with a net loss of $611.3 million, versus a profit of $808.2 million a year earlier. This clearly demonstrates that old earning models are no longer working, and the shift to AI is not a whim but a matter of survival for many public miners.
My view: this transformation is inevitable. Miners possess what is currently in short supply — cheap energy and cooling infrastructure. However, the HPC services market is already competitive, and those who fail to ensure service quality risk being left with massive debts and outdated equipment. The race is just beginning, and the stakes are extremely high.