The market is frozen in anticipation of a key decision on monetary policy. On the agenda of the Bank of Russia's board of directors on September 11 is the question of cutting the key rate. And judging by the latest statements from the Eastern Economic Forum, the consensus is gradually shifting toward easing, although without radical steps.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak made it clear that the government expects the rate-cut cycle to continue amid slowing annual inflation. According to estimates from the Ministry of Economic Development, as of August 31, this figure had already fallen to approximately 6.3%. In his words, high rates were justified only as a tool to suppress price pressure. Now that inflation is on the decline, it is logical to expect the regulator to begin gradually winding down its tight policy, returning investment incentives to the economy.
VTB head Andrei Kostin holds a similar position. He is confident that the peak of the cycle has already passed, and the movement will now be one-directional—only downward. Kostin acknowledged that the period of expensive money was hard on businesses, but stressed that the bank is ready for a gradual easing and does not expect sharp moves from the Central Bank. In his view, the regulator will remain cautious, which, however, does not cancel the overall downward trend.
Analyst forecasts: a pause or a step down?
A survey of economists conducted ahead of the meeting revealed two main scenarios. The first is holding the rate at 14%. The second is cutting it by 25 basis points, to 13.75%. Mikhail Vasilyev from Sovcombank leans toward a pause, drawing attention to alarming statistics: seasonally adjusted inflation for June–August accelerated to 10% year-on-year after 8.4% in July. This is a serious argument against hasty easing.
At BCS Mir Investments, both options are also seen as viable. Chief economist Ilya Fedorov notes that the suspense will remain until the very announcement of the decision. However, judging by the rhetoric of top officials, the market is still pricing in the start of a rate-cut cycle as early as September.
It is telling that even under an optimistic scenario, loans will not become significantly cheaper. Sberbank Deputy Chairman Elena Marchuk estimated average market mortgage rates at 18–19%, and the full cost of unsecured consumer loans at 30–34%. According to her, a real improvement in loan affordability is possible only with a sustained downward trend in the rate, which should not be expected before 2027.
At the October meeting, another step down of 25–50 basis points is possible if inflation continues to slow and the ruble remains in a manageable range. As for depositors, it is now wiser to lock in current high rates on deposits—the easing cycle will be gradual, but the direction is already obvious.
My view: The market seems to be in too much of a hurry. The acceleration of seasonally adjusted inflation is a worrying signal that the Central Bank cannot ignore. A rate cut in September would be more of a political gesture than an economic necessity. It is far more likely that the regulator will take a pause to assess the sustainability of the disinflationary trend and move toward easing closer to the end of the year.