Friday trading was marked by a significant shift in market expectations: the probability of a key interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve at the September meeting plummeted to 50%. This is a sharp reversal from the 70% level recorded just a day earlier, and an even starker contrast with the 37% observed a week ago. Such volatility in forecasts is a clear indicator of the uncertainty prevailing in the macroeconomic environment.
A change of course ahead of the September 16 meeting
Judging by the futures market, traders are almost evenly split: some are pricing in a hold on rates in the 3.50–3.75% range, while others expect a 25-basis-point hike to 3.75–4.00%. Notably, as recently as Thursday, the consensus was clearly in favor of tightening. Moreover, longer-term targets have also shifted: the scenario of reaching the 4.00–4.25% level is now pushed back to March 2027, whereas at the start of the week the market saw it materializing as early as December 2026.
Geopolitics and oil as drivers of uncertainty
Such sharp swings in probabilities cannot be viewed in isolation from the external backdrop. The escalation around Iran continues to roil commodity markets and bond yields, projecting nervousness onto all risk assets. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, at a recent meeting in Jackson Hole, faced polarizing opinions regarding the future path of the rate — within the regulator itself, there appears to be no unity on whether to continue the tightening cycle.
Bitcoin, as an asset highly sensitive to liquidity, reacts keenly to these signals. Over the past week, the price managed to break through the psychological level of $80,000 amid news of a possible de-escalation of the Iranian conflict, and by Friday it had settled around $81,000, gaining about 5% in a single day. The weakening of expectations for a rate hike reduces pressure on Treasury bonds and the dollar, which in turn creates favorable ground for growth in the leading cryptocurrency.
Whether this trend holds until the Fed's verdict on September 16 will directly depend on two key variables: the trajectory of the situation around Iran and fresh inflation data due in the coming days. The market is currently at a bifurcation point, and any change in these factors could once again rewrite the scenarios.
My view: The sharp drop in the probability of a rate hike is not merely a statistical fluctuation, but a signal that the market is beginning to doubt the Fed's resolve to fight inflation at any cost. For Bitcoin, this is a potentially powerful bullish catalyst, yet it is worth remembering: if geopolitical tensions return, oil will spike again, and the regulator will have to tighten its rhetoric. Keep an eye on data regarding Iran and the CPI — they will be the triggers for the next major move.