The question of the future trajectory of monetary policy in Russia has come to the forefront. Signals from the Eastern Economic Forum platform indicate a high probability of easing at the upcoming meeting of the Central Bank's board of directors. Financial elites and the analytical community agree that the peak of the tightening cycle has passed, and the regulator is preparing for a gradual reversal.
Novak and Kostin: the vector toward easing is obvious
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak hinted on the sidelines of the forum that the government expects the cycle of key rate cuts to continue. He ties his optimism to a steady slowdown in inflation, which, in his words, should become a driver for restoring investment activity. Notably, he also mentioned the president's close attention to macroeconomic indicators on the sidelines of the EEF.
According to estimates from the Ministry of Economic Development, annual inflation slowed to 6.3% as of August 31. This creates the preconditions for the Bank of Russia to shift from a policy of restraint to stimulating economic growth. Novak emphasized that the return of the investment cycle will be a gradual process, but a shift toward recovering investments is already visible against the backdrop of cheaper borrowing costs.
Cautious optimism in the banking sector
VTB head Andrei Kostin expressed confidence that there will be no more rate hikes. He forecasts a "one-way movement downward," although he allows that the regulator will act extremely cautiously, avoiding sharp steps. Kostin acknowledged that the period of high rates was not easy for the economy, but the banking system has adapted and is ready for a smooth easing. In his words, businesses are also interested in more active action from the Central Bank but are forced to work under expensive money conditions for now.
Forecasts for September 11: 14% or 13.75%?
The consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by business publications boils down to two main scenarios for the September 11 meeting: holding the rate at 14% or cutting it by 25 basis points to 13.75%. Mikhail Vasilyev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, expects a pause, pointing to statistics that do not yet show a sustained slowdown. Seasonally adjusted inflation for June-August, according to his calculations, accelerated to 10% after 8.4% in July, which clearly does not favor supporters of immediate easing.
In turn, Ilya Fedorov, chief economist at BCS World of Investments, considers both scenarios viable and does not rule out that the board of directors will still decide on a symbolic step downward. Notably, even with a rate cut, the availability of credit for households and businesses will not change significantly. As noted by Sberbank Deputy Chairman Elena Marchuk, average market mortgage rates will remain in the 18-19% range, while the full cost of unsecured consumer loans will fluctuate within 30-34%. A real improvement in lending conditions, in her view, is only possible in 2027.
A look ahead: strategy for depositors
The October meeting also promises no clarity. Some experts allow for another cut, while others expect a pause to assess the effect of measures already taken. Denis Astafyev, founder of the fintech platform SharesPro, advises not to chase short-term gains and to lock in high deposit rates now. He reminds that the easing cycle will be smooth and stretched over time, and a sharp drop in loan costs should not be expected.
My analysis: The market, judging by all appearances, has already priced in the scenario of the start of the easing cycle. However, the September 11 decision will be more of a signal than a revolution. Even a 25-basis-point cut will not change the fundamental picture for borrowers, but it will provide a clear benchmark for long-term planning by businesses and investors. The key risk remains inflationary pressure, which could force the Central Bank to act even more cautiously than the market expects.