The discussion about the future of monetary policy in Russia has reached a new level. Signals emerged at the Eastern Economic Forum suggesting that the easing cycle could continue as early as the next meeting of the Bank of Russia's board of directors. Financial authorities and big business are increasingly talking about the need to stimulate investment activity by lowering the cost of borrowing.
Official view: inflation is receding
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated during the forum that he expects further cuts to the key rate as annual inflation slows. According to estimates from the Ministry of Economic Development, as of August 31 this figure stood at approximately 6.3%. The official emphasized that the high rate level was justified during the phase of actively suppressing price pressure, but the macroeconomic situation is now changing.
"Therefore, we continue to hope that the key rate will be lowered," Novak noted.
According to him, as policy eases, investment incentives will return for both enterprises and the private sector. This will ensure growth in capital spending and give additional momentum to the economy. The launch of a new investment cycle, however, will be gradual — the macroeconomic situation changes inertially and slowly.
Banking sector: moving down, but without sharp steps
VTB head Andrei Kostin also expressed confidence that the policy direction will not change and the rate will continue to decline smoothly. He stressed that there will be no more hikes, and the movement will be one-directional — downward. The banker acknowledged that several years of expensive money have been difficult, but business has adapted and expects gradual relief.
"We expect a smooth decline, but the direction, in my view, will already be one-directional," Kostin stated.
At the same time, he allowed that the Central Bank will remain cautious at the upcoming meeting, although financial organizations are interested in more active steps by the regulator.
Analyst forecasts: two scenarios on the table
A survey of economists outlines two main scenarios for the September 11 meeting. Sovcombank chief analyst Mikhail Vasilyev expects the rate to remain at 14%, although he does not rule out that a cut option will also be discussed. He points to statistics: seasonally adjusted inflation in August was about 7%, and the three-month figure for June-August accelerated to 10% after 8.4% in July and 5.4% in June.
BCS Mir Investments chief economist Ilya Fedorov sees both working scenarios on the board of directors' table — holding the rate or cutting it by 25 basis points, to 13.75%. The final decision will be made directly at the meeting, taking into account fresh data on inflation and the currency market.
Looking ahead: when loans become more affordable
Experts agree that a noticeable reduction in the cost of loans will occur no earlier than 2027. Sberbank Deputy Chairman of the Executive Board Elena Marchuk allowed that average market mortgage rates will for now remain in the range of 18–19%, while the full cost of unsecured consumer loans will stay at 30–34% including fees.
SharesPro fintech platform manager Denis Astafyev allows for a rate cut of 25–50 basis points in October, provided the disinflationary trend continues and the ruble remains stable. He advises depositors to lock in favorable deposit rates now, since the easing cycle will be smooth and stretched over time.
My view: The market is pricing in the start of an easing cycle, but the regulator will most likely prefer to wait for confirmation of the sustainability of the disinflationary trend. Investors and holders of ruble assets should prepare for a gradual decline in yields, but sharp movements should not be expected in the coming months.