Bitcoin (BTC) is once again demonstrating impressive momentum, updating its daily high near the $82,100 mark. However, the asset has not yet managed to hold onto these heights — a pullback to $81,000 followed. Over the past 24 hours, the leading cryptocurrency has gained 4.5%, continuing the August rally, which has become the strongest monthly growth since November 2024.
However, despite market optimism and significant gains, not all institutional players are ready to declare the end of the bearish phase. Fidelity Digital Assets is urging caution, pointing out that a single powerful surge is not yet a guarantee of a sustainable trend reversal.
Fidelity analysts: patterns and cycles
Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, draws attention to the fact that the current sharp rise was preceded by a long period of low volatility observed from June to late August. In his words, this is a typical prelude to bullish movements, but he does not rule out negative scenarios either.
Kuiper notes that some traders are guided by the theory of Bitcoin's four-year cycle. Historically, the bottom of a bear market has formed roughly once every four years. If counting from the November 2022 low, the next potential bottom could fall in November 2026. Nevertheless, the analyst warns: this pattern has never worked with month-level precision, so relying on it for precise position entry is extremely risky. The cycle could have ended as early as July, but a new low before the end of the year is also not ruled out.
Arguments for a reversal and the institutional view
However, there is no consensus among analysts. Eric Crown states in his review that the bear market has already ended in August. He considers the wave-like nature of digital asset adoption to be the key argument, which continues to support cyclicality.
"The more important point for investors: digital asset adoption has occurred in waves, and these waves are precisely what support cyclicality," notes Chris Kuiper.
Kuiper adds that even negative news, such as the recent story about the Coldcard hardware wallet vulnerability, failed to crash the BTC price. In his opinion, this may indicate that sellers have practically exhausted their strength for further pressure on the market.
Fundamental factors and regulation
Institutional optimism is also reinforced by the growth of stablecoins, as well as the tokenization sector of real-world assets (RWA) — digital versions of bonds, real estate, and similar instruments. Fidelity views this as a sign of strengthening core network metrics, even though the price of Bitcoin is still lagging behind these indicators.
At the same time, regulatory uncertainty in the United States persists. The CLARITY Act bill, designed to clarify federal oversight of cryptocurrencies, is stuck in the Senate, and quick passage should not be expected. The SEC continues to collect comments on Regulation Crypto Assets, which also adds a note of uncertainty.
My conclusion: the market is at a turning point. On one hand, we see clear signs of accumulation and institutional interest. On the other, historical cyclicality and regulatory risks do not allow us to completely rule out a new wave of decline. The key indicator to watch until the end of the year is the persistence of the correlation between adoption growth and Bitcoin price dynamics. Only its stability will give us confirmation of the start of a full-fledged bull cycle.