Key macroeconomic data from the United States once again triggered sharp movements in the markets. The release of the June jobs report led to an immediate correction in both Bitcoin and gold. The figures came in significantly better than forecasts, dramatically shifting the balance of power ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting.
According to the latest statistics, the U.S. economy added 162,000 new jobs, while the consensus forecast among analysts had anticipated only about 56,000. That is nearly a threefold overshoot of expectations. However, even more tellingly, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics substantially revised data for previous months. The July figure was adjusted from a decline of 23,000 to growth of 21,000, and June from 20,000 to 31,000. Thus, the average monthly gain over the past 12 months stood at just 31,000, pointing to an overall cooling of the labor market, but its recent momentum proved far more resilient than assumed.
Immediate market reaction
Markets responded without delay. Bitcoin, which was trading at $81,340 before the report's release, plunged to $79,661 within five minutes, losing 1.8% of its value. Gold also slipped from $4,473 to $4,376 per ounce, showing a decline of 1.75% over the same time frame.
The drop was exacerbated by the effect of leverage. According to my data, positions worth more than $201 million were liquidated within an hour, of which $186 million were long positions. Over the course of the day, the total amount of liquidations reached an impressive $750 million, underscoring the high degree of market overheating and excessive bullish overconfidence.
A paradigm shift in rate expectations
The main takeaway from this dynamic is a reversal in market expectations. As recently as late August, traders estimated a 66% probability of a rate hike in September. However, following recent statements by Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Christopher Waller about a possible pause, those expectations were cut in half, allowing Bitcoin and gold to rise in tandem.
Now, sustained wage growth and upward revisions to labor market data give Fed Chair Jerome Powell strong arguments for maintaining a hawkish course. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% to $37.75, which on an annual basis amounts to 3.1% versus the expected 3%. This intensifies concerns about persistent inflationary pressure.
The next key event will be the release of consumer price data on September 11 — just five days before the Fed meeting. It is these figures that could prove decisive, with the potential to once again reverse market sentiment.
My comment: The market once again found itself hostage to macroeconomic statistics, confirming the ongoing correlation of risk assets with Fed actions. However, it is worth noting that Bitcoin's reaction was more restrained compared to previous similar events, which may signal growing institutional support and market maturity. Nevertheless, in the short term, volatility will remain high, and the key support level for BTC will be the $79,000 mark.