A radical shift in technology policy is being actively discussed in Russian government circles. The focus is on prioritizing the use of domestic artificial intelligence models in sensitive areas such as security, public administration, education, and even electoral processes. This is not just a declaration, but part of the preparation of by-laws for the AI law that came into force in July.
The key signal came at the Eastern Economic Forum 2026 from Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Grigorenko. According to him, the Cabinet is working on an approach where, in a number of industries, priority will by default be given to Russian developments. The implementation of this idea, it appears, will not go through direct bans, but through economic mechanisms.
The essence of the new industrial policy
My analysis shows that the authorities are choosing a hybrid regulatory model. On the one hand, until 2032, the possibility of using foreign AI remains even in priority sectors. On the other hand, organizations that continue to work with foreign solutions will automatically lose access to tax breaks and government subsidies when implementing technologies. This is a powerful but elegant incentive.
In essence, an economic structure is being formed where it is more profitable for businesses to migrate to the domestic stack in advance. Companies that want to retain preferences and access to government orders will have to rebuild their technology base. This creates predictable demand for local developers.
What this means for the market
In parallel, the authorities are preparing a package of positive measures. The introduction of an investment deduction of up to 20 billion rubles, accounting for expenses on creating models at triple the amount, as well as reducing the tax burden on the acquisition of AI solutions for small and medium-sized businesses are being discussed. This entire set — from tax coefficients to preferential VAT on AI services — adds up to a coherent picture.
It is telling that the initiative comes not only from regulators. The Digital Economy ANO has already proposed specific incentive mechanisms to the Ministry of Digital Development. At the macro level, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov called AI and automation new growth points for the economy, and his ministry is already using algorithms in preparing the federal budget.
Practical results are already visible
The Opturana platform was the first in the world to optimize public transport schedules using AI, reducing inter-route downtime in Moscow by 34%. The Ministry of Construction expects to transfer half of the processes in construction and housing and utilities to AI by 2030. However, it is worth noting that the share of products with real agent functionality in the Russian registry is currently estimated at only 5%, compared to 39% globally. This is a growth area.
Forecasts from the AIANA agency confirm the scale: the baseline scenario assumes industry growth from 316.1 billion to 830 billion rubles by 2030, and under favorable conditions — up to 1.12 trillion rubles.
My conclusion: We are witnessing the formation of a protectionist model where the state becomes the main customer and regulator. This will inevitably accelerate market consolidation and strengthen the positions of large local players, but will create serious challenges for small teams that still depend on foreign models. The transition period until 2032 is a window of opportunity that should be used as effectively as possible to build one's own technological competencies.