The Russian government has set a course for the total implementation of domestic AI solutions in strategically important sectors. This concerns security, public administration, education, and even electoral processes. This is not just a declaration—the Cabinet is already working on specific mechanisms that will radically change the rules of the game for business and the public sector.
Economic incentives instead of bans
The key signal delivered at the WEF-2026 by Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Grigorenko is that the authorities do not intend to impose direct bans on foreign technologies. Instead, the focus is on economic pressure. Companies that continue to use foreign AI in priority industries will simply lose access to state preferences. This applies to tax benefits and government contracts—a powerful lever of influence.
My analysis shows that this approach is a classic "carrot and stick," where the carrot is significant savings for those who switch to Russian solutions. In essence, a closed loop is being formed: the state creates demand for domestic models through the public sector, and tax relief makes their development cheaper for businesses.
Education as an entry point
The most illustrative example is the education sector. The mandatory use of sovereign AI systems is planned to be introduced at the school and preschool levels. This will be implemented through the government procurement mechanism, which automatically cuts off foreign vendors. Until 2032, a transition period remains in place when the use of foreign solutions is still possible, but without state support.
Ambitious goals and real projects
The initiative is not limited to these sectors alone. The Ministry of Construction has set the ambitious task of transferring half of the processes in construction and housing and utilities to AI by 2030. There are already practical successes: the "Opturana" platform optimized public transport schedules in Moscow, reducing inter-route downtime by 34%.
Notably, at the G20 meeting in the United States, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov called the implementation of AI and automation new growth points for the economy. In his department, algorithms are already being used in the preparation of the federal budget.
Market prospects
According to the baseline forecast of the AIANA agency, the volume of the Russian AI market will grow from 316.1 billion rubles to 830 billion by 2030. Under a favorable scenario, this figure could reach 1.12 trillion rubles. However, it is worth noting: the share of products with real agentic functionality in the Russian registry is estimated at only 5% compared to 39% globally—this is a serious challenge that developers will have to overcome.
My expert opinion: this course will inevitably lead to market consolidation around several major domestic platforms. For medium and small businesses, this is a window of opportunity—an early transition to Russian AI solutions will allow not only preserving benefits but also gaining a competitive advantage in government contracts. However, investors should closely monitor real performance indicators rather than just loud statements from officials.