The Russian stock market is undergoing a fundamental transformation. The departed foreign capital is being replaced by a new, more sustainable pillar — domestic retail investors. This trend was clearly evident at the Eastern Economic Forum, where Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, outlined the key contours of the platform's future development.
Model shift: from external dependence to internal strength
The departure of a significant portion of non-residents did not prove fatal for the market; on the contrary, it triggered a process of qualitative renewal. Instead of the previous reliance on foreign inflows, we are witnessing the formation of a stable pool of domestic investors. In recent years, the country has developed a professional community and advanced exchange infrastructure. Systemic measures played a decisive role in this: involving non-state pension funds in the investment process, launching the long-term savings program, and introducing the third type of individual investment accounts.
These instruments, in essence, create "long money" — the very capital capable of financing large-scale projects under clear and transparent conditions. However, as Aksakov himself acknowledges, the departure of foreigners and the challenging geopolitical situation have inevitably impacted liquidity. The market needs time to fully recover.
An agenda in tune with signals from the authorities
The theme of private investment was a recurring thread at the forum. President Vladimir Putin directly called creating conditions for private investment the primary task, emphasizing that the key role should be played not by state resources, but by citizens' initiative. This thesis fully correlates with Aksakov's view on the changing market model.
An important signal was also the president's instruction to develop a mechanism for concession bonds — a new tool for attracting capital to public-private partnership projects. This is another step toward building a bridge between household savings and the economy's needs for long-term financing.
At the same time, the macroeconomic backdrop cannot be ignored. The slowdown of inflation to 6.3% year-on-year (as of August 31) is a positive factor that directly affects rates and, consequently, citizens' willingness to shift savings into exchange-traded instruments. However, as noted by the Bank of Russia, investor sentiment is far from optimistic: geopolitics, inflation risks, and technical factors continue to weigh on the market, forcing companies to increase debt.
My view: We are witnessing not merely the replacement of some players by others, but a shift in the very philosophy of the market. The transition to a model relying on the domestic retail investor is a long-term trend that will make the platform more resilient to external shocks. However, the success of this transformation will directly depend on the ability of the regulator and issuers to restore the trust of private capital, which remains the main weak point of the entire structure.