The Russian government is actively developing a concept for the mandatory use of domestic AI models in key sectors — from security and public administration to education and electoral processes. This is not just about recommendations, but about forming a system where the use of foreign technologies in priority industries becomes economically unviable.
The essence of the initiative: economic pressure instead of bans
Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Grigorenko outlined the main principle at the WEF-2026 platform: in a number of industries, priority should by default be given to Russian developments. The Cabinet is already testing this approach on its own digital platforms to come forward with ready-made proposals. My analysis shows: the authorities are deliberately moving away from direct restrictions, betting on tax and financial incentives that should redirect demand toward national vendors.
The mandatory implementation of sovereign systems in education will only affect school and preschool levels. Implementation is planned to be carried out through the government procurement mechanism. At the same time, until 2032, the possibility of using foreign AI even in priority areas will remain, but organizations that choose foreign solutions will lose access to state support and tax benefits. This is a key lever of pressure: it will be more profitable for businesses to migrate to the domestic stack in advance in order to retain preferences.
Support measures and industry ambitions
In parallel, a package of incentives for developers is being worked out. The ANO "Digital Economy" has proposed to the Ministry of Digital Development an investment deduction of up to 20 billion rubles and accounting for costs of creating models at triple the amount. Broader relaxations are also being discussed: coefficients for AI expenses, preferential VAT on services, and exemption of specialized data centers from property tax.
Ambitions are also visible in specific projects. The "Opturana" platform has already become the first in the world to optimize public transport schedules using AI, reducing inter-route downtime in Moscow by 34%. The Ministry of Construction expects to transfer half of processes in construction and housing and communal services to AI by 2030. However, the gap with the global level is tangible: the share of products with real agent functionality in the Russian registry is estimated at only 5% versus 39% worldwide.
The market is growing rapidly at the same time: according to the basic AIANA forecast, the industry volume will increase from 316.1 billion to 830 billion rubles by 2030, and under a favorable scenario it will reach 1.12 trillion. The fight for a share in priority sectors is becoming a matter of survival and scaling for developers.
My view: This strategy is a classic example of "soft protectionism," where fiscal instruments work more effectively than administrative bans. However, success will depend on the real quality of domestic models. If the bet on sovereignty is not backed by competitive products, businesses will find ways to circumvent restrictions, and the industry risks closing in on imitation of innovation.