The Russian government is actively working on scenarios for the forced transition of key industries to domestic solutions in the field of artificial intelligence. This concerns security, public administration, education, and even electoral processes. At the same time, the authorities are relying not on bans, but on economic incentives, so that it becomes profitable for businesses to abandon foreign technologies.
What the Cabinet Proposes
Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Grigorenko, speaking at WEF-2026, confirmed that the Cabinet of Ministers is discussing the priority use of Russian AI models in a number of areas. According to him, there are industries where preference should by default be given to domestic developments. Work on this approach is being carried out on the government's own platform in order to come forward with ready-made proposals.
Sources familiar with the progress of the discussion clarify: in education, the measure will only affect the school and preschool levels. It is planned to be implemented through the public procurement mechanism. Until 2032, it remains possible to use foreign AI even in priority industries. However, organizations choosing foreign solutions will not be able to claim state support when implementing the technology. It is this restriction that will become the key instrument of influence.
"Such a distinction effectively creates an economic incentive for businesses in favor of Russian products. It is more profitable for companies to switch to the domestic stack in advance in order to retain access to benefits and government orders," noted informed interlocutors.
Support Measures and Taxes
In parallel, the authorities are also preparing the positive part of regulation — a set of support measures for developers of sovereign models. Both directions come together into a single framework: access to preferences is tied to the Russian origin of the technologies.
Earlier, tax benefits for small and medium-sized businesses when implementing AI were already reported. Among the measures are a reduced tax on the purchase or remote access to AI solutions, as well as subsidies to the developer in the amount of the price of the delivered product for small companies. Broader relaxations are also being discussed: tax coefficients for development expenses, preferential VAT on AI services, exemption of specialized data centers from property tax, and the extension of IT benefits to companies implementing the technology.
Practice and Ambitions
The autonomous non-profit organization "Digital Economy" has proposed to the Ministry of Digital Development an investment deduction of up to 20 billion rubles and accounting for expenses on creating models at triple the amount. Grigorenko himself emphasized that the authorities are not considering abandoning the use of AI.
The bet on technology is also being made at the macro level. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov called the implementation of AI and automation new points of economic growth, and employees of his department already use algorithms in preparing the federal budget. The Ministry of Construction plans to transfer half of the processes in construction and housing and communal services to AI by 2030. The "Opturana" platform has already become the first in the world to optimize public transport schedules, reducing inter-route downtime in Moscow by 34%.
However, the gap with the global level is still significant: the share of products with real agent functionality in the Russian registry is estimated at only 5% versus 39% worldwide. According to the baseline forecast of AIANA, the industry volume will grow from 316.1 billion to 830 billion rubles by 2030, and under a favorable scenario it will reach 1.12 trillion.
My view: Russia has chosen the path of "soft protectionism" — not to ban, but to make domestic solutions economically inevitable. This is a smart move, but success will depend on whether local models can truly meet the needs of defense and public administration. Otherwise, the incentives will turn into a formality, and the market will freeze in anticipation.