The Russian government is considering an ambitious plan to introduce domestic AI models into key areas of national importance. This concerns security, governance, education, and even electoral processes. At the VEF-2026 platform, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Grigorenko outlined the contours of a new policy: in a number of industries, priority will by default be given to Russian developments. The Cabinet is already working on this approach, intending to come forward with specific proposals.
On the sidelines of the discussions, it is confirmed: the focus is shifting to the use of sovereign and national models in public services and education. Moreover, in the educational sphere, the measure will affect exclusively school and preschool levels, and implementation will proceed through the public procurement mechanism. This means that educational institutions will be obliged to purchase solutions that meet the new requirements.
The AI law, which came into force in July, formally permits the use of foreign technologies even in priority industries until 2032. However, the key tool of influence is not a ban, but economic incentives. Organizations that choose foreign solutions automatically lose the right to state support during implementation. This approach sends a clear financial signal to businesses: the transition to a domestic stack is becoming not just desirable, but economically necessary to maintain access to benefits and government contracts.
Incentives and Market Structure
The authorities are also preparing a positive agenda — a package of support measures for developers of sovereign models. Interestingly, the initiatives fit into a single logic: access to preferences is strictly tied to the Russian origin of the technologies. Thus, the ANO "Digital Economy" has proposed to the Ministry of Digital Development an investment deduction of up to 20 billion rubles and accounting for costs of creating models at triple the amount. Grigorenko himself emphasizes: the authorities are not even considering abandoning AI — the bet is placed on technological sovereignty.
The macro level also confirms the trend. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov at the G20 meeting in the United States called AI and automation new points of economic growth, and his ministry is already applying algorithms in preparing the federal budget. Sectoral ministries are also setting ambitious goals: Deputy Minister of Construction and Housing and Utilities Konstantin Mikhailik expects to transfer half of the processes in construction and public utilities to AI by 2030.
Practical results are already visible. The "Opturana" platform was the first in the world to optimize public transport schedules using AI, reducing inter-route downtime in Moscow by 34%. However, the gap with global leaders remains: the share of products with real agent functionality in the Russian registry is estimated at only 5% versus 39% worldwide. This indicates significant growth potential.
According to the baseline forecast of AIANA, the volume of the AI market in Russia will grow from 316.1 billion rubles to 830 billion by 2030, and under a favorable scenario it will reach 1.12 trillion. The fight for a share in priority industries is becoming a matter of strategic survival and growth for developers.
My view: This course is not just an administrative tilt, but an attempt to create a self-sufficient technological circuit. For investors and developers, the signal is unambiguous: the future belongs to those who are ready to build infrastructure domestically, rather than adapt foreign solutions. The question is only about pace — can the Russian industry close the fivefold gap in agentic AI by 2030, when the transition period ends.