The Russian government is seriously considering the possibility of introducing domestic artificial intelligence models into critically important sectors—from defense and public administration to education and electoral processes. This is not just talk about technological patriotism, but the formation of a new economic reality where access to government contracts and benefits will directly depend on the origin of the software used.
Economic incentives instead of bans
A key signal came from the sidelines of WEF-2026: Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Grigorenko confirmed that the cabinet is working on an approach in which priority in a number of industries will by default be given to Russian developments. This concerns the creation of "sovereign" and "national" models that will become the basis for public services and the educational process. Notably, in education, the measure will only apply to school and preschool levels, implemented through the government procurement mechanism.
Instead of a direct ban on foreign technologies, the authorities are choosing a more flexible tool—economic pressure. Until 2032, the use of foreign AI in priority sectors will formally remain possible, but companies that choose this path will lose access to tax preferences and state support. This effectively creates a powerful incentive for businesses to migrate to the domestic stack in advance in order to maintain competitive advantages.
Support structure and large-scale goals
In parallel, a positive agenda is also being built. The Deputy Prime Minister's office confirms active work on a package of support measures for developers. Among the initiatives under discussion are an investment deduction of up to 20 billion rubles, accounting for costs of creating models at triple the amount, reduced VAT on AI services, and exemption of specialized data centers from property tax. All of this is tied into a single framework: demand for sovereign models is generated through the public sector, while their creation is made cheaper through tax relief.
The authorities' ambitions extend far beyond individual departments. The Ministry of Construction, for example, sets the task of transferring half of the processes in construction and housing and utilities to AI by 2030. At the macro level, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov calls the introduction of AI and automation new growth points for the economy, and his ministry already uses algorithms in preparing the federal budget. The first successes are also telling: the Opturana platform was the first in the world to optimize public transport schedules in Moscow, reducing inter-route idle time by 34%.
Gap with global levels and market potential
However, a serious lag must be overcome. The share of products with real agent functionality in the Russian registry is estimated at only 5% versus 39% globally, which underscores the need for accelerated development of standards for integrating AI agents into industrial software. Nevertheless, the market's potential is enormous: according to the AIANA baseline forecast, the industry's volume will grow from 316.1 billion to 830 billion rubles by 2030, and under a favorable scenario—up to 1.12 trillion rubles.
Analytical commentary: The chosen strategy is a classic carrot-and-stick approach, but with a long-term vision. The refusal of direct bans gives businesses time to restructure, while the strict linkage of benefits to the origin of technologies creates a predictable market for local developers. However, the success of the entire framework will depend on whether domestic models can achieve parity with foreign counterparts in quality. Otherwise, we risk getting formal import substitution that will slow down real technological development.