The August rally of the first cryptocurrency, however impressive it may be, is not yet an unequivocal signal of a shift in the market paradigm. In my analytical review, based on the latest data and expert assessments, it is important to emphasize: it is premature to talk about the end of the bearish phase. Analysts at Fidelity Digital Assets, whose research I have carefully studied, allow that the local bottom may have been passed in July, but the historical cyclicality of the market points to the likelihood of a new low forming closer to November.
Cyclicality as a guide, not a dogma
The previous global low was recorded in November 2022. If we extrapolate this pattern, the next potential "capitulation" decline could fall in November of this year. However, I consider it important to caution against blindly following this model. As my colleagues at Fidelity rightly note, Bitcoin's historical cycles have never fit into strict four-year frameworks. Vice President of Research Chris Kuiper links the observed periodicity not to the halving per se, but to waves of mass adoption of the technology, which shape these phases of growth and stagnation.
Arguments in favor of a reversal and "bullish" signals
Despite the caution, there are also positive aspects. I see the key indicator as a change in the volatility structure. Historically, the end of bearish phases is accompanied by a period of extremely low price fluctuations, followed by a sharp surge in activity. It is precisely this "compression" regime that we observed from June to mid-August. By that point, sellers looked exhausted, and valuations of many assets were at the lower bounds of historical ranges. The subsequent surge in Bitcoin of more than 25% in a week (with Ethereum rising by 34.1% and Solana by 28%) is a compelling argument for the start of a reversal, although not a guarantee of a new bullish supercycle.
Also noteworthy is the market's resilience to negative news flow. Events that would previously have triggered a large-scale sell-off are now passing almost painlessly for quotes. This indicates increased market maturity and a reduction in the number of "weak hands."
The fundamental foundation and growth drivers
Activity in the on-chain sphere is also telling. According to my data, the volume of stablecoin transactions in July was more than 2.3 times higher than the volume of payments through the Visa network. This indicates that the practical use of blockchain infrastructure remains at a high level even amid price correction. The August rally has only partially closed the gap between fundamental activity and price.
Among the key drivers for the next cycle, I would highlight several factors. First, progress in the U.S. regulatory environment. The CLARITY Act, which has already passed the House of Representatives, and the Regulation Crypto Assets regime proposed by the SEC could radically change the rules of the game, reducing uncertainty for institutional investors. Second, the Fed's monetary policy and further steps toward institutional adoption.
My conclusion: the market is in a phase of fragile equilibrium. The November scenario is not a verdict, but rather a stress test of strength. If fundamental drivers, such as regulation and adoption, continue to gain momentum, the current growth could continue without a deep renewal of the bottom. However, investors should remain cautious and not ignore the risks of renewed volatility at the end of the year.