The Russian government is actively working on scenarios for implementing domestic AI solutions in critically important sectors: from security and public administration to education and electoral processes. This is not just about technological upgrades, but about forming a comprehensive strategy of digital sovereignty, where priority by default should belong to national developments.
The essence of the initiative: economics instead of bans
Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Grigorenko outlined the direction at the WEF-2026 platform: in industries where there is an objective need for AI, it is necessary to stimulate the transition to Russian models. The Cabinet intends to develop specific proposals, but the key tool is already obvious — not an administrative ban, but economic feasibility. Organizations that continue to use foreign technologies in priority areas risk losing tax preferences and state support. This will become a powerful lever of influence on business, making the transition to the domestic stack not a matter of ideology, but a matter of profit.
In my assessment, this approach — "carrot and stick" — is much more effective than direct restrictions. It creates sustainable demand for national products without breaking market mechanisms, but redirecting them in the right direction. This is a smart move that allows preserving competition, but within set boundaries.
What this means for business and education
In the educational sphere, for example, the mandatory transition to sovereign AI will only affect school and preschool levels, implemented through government procurement mechanisms. Until 2032, the possibility of using foreign AI even in priority industries remains, giving businesses a transition period for adaptation. However, companies that choose foreign solutions will lose access to government orders and benefits. In parallel, authorities are preparing a package of support measures for developers: from investment deductions to subsidies, which should make creating their own models cheaper.
A broader picture is also emerging: Finance Minister Anton Siluanov calls AI and automation new points of economic growth. Agencies are setting ambitious goals — from transferring 50% of processes in construction and housing and communal services to AI by 2030 to standardizing AI agents in industry. The market is responding in kind: according to the baseline forecast of AIANA, the industry's volume will grow from 316.1 billion rubles to 830 billion by 2030, and under a favorable scenario — to 1.12 trillion rubles.
It is telling that the share of products with real agent functionality in the Russian registry is estimated at only 5% versus 39% worldwide. This indicates a significant gap that authorities intend to close using the public sector as a driver. The implementation of AI in defense, elections, and schools is not just technical modernization, but a claim to technological independence amid global competition. Given current pace, I predict that the battle for a share in these priority niches will become the main battlefield for Russian developers in the coming years.