The Russian stock market is undergoing a fundamental transformation. After the departure of a significant share of foreign players, its foundation is shifting toward domestic private capital. This is no longer a temporary adaptation but a structural shift that sets a new logic for the development of the entire exchange. Key signals about this emerged on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum, where the head of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, Anatoly Aksakov, outlined the contours of the new model.
What is changing in the market after the departure of foreigners
In my assessment, the departure of non-residents has become a catalyst for the formation of a more mature and self-sufficient ecosystem. In recent years, a professional community of investors has emerged in the country, and the exchange infrastructure has received a powerful development boost. A decisive role here was played by decisions to involve non-state pension funds in the investment process, as well as the launch of the long-term savings program and individual investment accounts of the third type. These instruments not only lengthen the capital horizon but also create clear conditions for citizens, encouraging them to transfer savings into exchange-traded assets.
Aksakov rightly notes that market liquidity still leaves much to be desired—this is a direct consequence of geopolitical pressure and the outflow of foreign capital. However, for serious growth, three components are needed: time, new high-quality listings of Russian companies, and the restoration of investor confidence. The exchange's potential is enormous: businesses need capital for development, while citizens and institutions need reliable instruments for investment.
Signals from the EEF: a bet on private capital
This agenda is fully synchronized with the president's statements. Vladimir Putin, at the EEF plenary session, called creating conditions for private investment the main task, emphasizing that the key role should be played not by state resources but by private investments. A separate signal was the president's instruction to monitor the operation of concession bonds—a new instrument for attracting long-term money into public-private partnership projects. This is another step toward forming mechanisms for long-term financing of the economy.
Also important is the slowdown in inflation, which the Ministry of Economic Development is recording: as of August 31, annual price growth stood at 6.3%. This trend is critical for the stock market, since rates and the willingness of citizens to transfer savings into stocks and bonds depend on it. However, the sentiments of investors themselves are far from optimistic. Olga Shishlyannikova, Director of the Department of Investment Financial Intermediaries at the Bank of Russia, notes that the market is going through a difficult stage due to geopolitics, inflationary risks, and technical factors, while isolation from foreign investment is forcing some companies to increase debt. That is why the confidence Aksakov speaks of remains a vulnerable link for now.
My comment: The current market model is a bet on the domestic investor, but without the restoration of macroeconomic stability and attractive IPOs, it risks remaining merely a declaration. Success will depend on how quickly the regulator and issuers can offer high-quality instruments capable of competing with deposits for the wallet of the private saver.