The August rally of the first cryptocurrency, which impressed many market participants, is not an unequivocal signal of a trend reversal. My colleagues at Fidelity Digital Assets' analytical division take a more cautious stance, allowing that the current bearish phase may continue. According to their model, based on historical cyclicality, the probability of a new local bottom forming is high closer to November of this year.
Cyclicality as a guide, not a dogma
The key argument is built on the fact that the previous market bottom was recorded in November 2022. If we extrapolate the four-year pattern, the next cyclical low could fall in November 2025. However, an important caveat must be made here: this pattern in itself is not an impeccable forecasting tool. As Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, rightly notes, Bitcoin's historical cycles have never fit neatly into a strictly calendar-based four years, and their nature is more tied to waves of institutional and retail adoption of the technology rather than mathematical precision.
Arguments for a reversal and the "cannonade" of volatility
Nevertheless, there are weighty counterarguments in the "bull" camp. One of the main ones is the anomalous volatility compression observed from June to mid-August. Historically, the end of bearish phases is often accompanied by a period of "calm," when the market consolidates before a sharp move. This is exactly what we saw: sellers showed exhaustion, and valuations of many digital assets were at the lower bounds of historical ranges.
The subsequent surge was impressive: over the third week of August, Bitcoin rose by more than 25%, Ether by 34.1%, and Solana by 28%. However, such dynamics, for all their positivity, are not self-sufficient proof of the start of a new bullish supercycle. This is rather a powerful technical rebound, which nevertheless demonstrates the market's resilience to a negative news backdrop—what could previously trigger a crash now passes almost unnoticed.
Fundamental foundation and regulatory drivers
Also noteworthy is the state of fundamental indicators, which do not directly correlate with price. According to my data, the volume of stablecoin transactions in July more than doubled (by 2.3 times) compared to the same figure for the Visa payment system. This suggests that the practical use of blockchain infrastructure continues to grow even amid a correction. An additional supporting factor is the accelerating growth of the real-world assets (RWA) market, which, according to estimates, will gain new momentum as early as 2026.
From a strategic, multi-year perspective, the main catalysts for the next major rally will be regulatory clarity in the United States, further penetration of institutional capital, and monetary policy. In particular, I am closely following the fate of the CLARITY Act bill, which has already passed the House of Representatives and is now in the Senate, as well as the SEC's initiative to create a Regulation Crypto Assets regime, which could remove some tokens from the scope of strict securities registration requirements at early stages.
My comment: The market is in a phase of uncertainty, where the technical picture conflicts with macroeconomic expectations. One should not blindly trust calendar cycles, but ignoring them is also unwise. Right now, it is far more important to watch the price's resilience to negative news and the volume of inflows into ETFs—these indicators will provide a clearer signal than assumptions about a "bottom" in November. At the moment, we have already seen a test of the $82,000 level, backed by record inflows of $730 million in a single session, which points to sustained appetite among major players.