The question of implementing domestic artificial intelligence has shifted from the plane of technological competition into the realm of state strategy. The government is now actively working on a mechanism that would make the use of Russian AI models mandatory in a number of key sectors: security, public administration, education, and even electoral processes. This is not just a recommendation, but the formation of a new economic reality.
The key tool of pressure is not prohibitions, but economic incentives. Based on my analysis, the authorities are preparing a system under which refusing domestic software would mean losing access to government contracts and tax preferences. This is a smart move: instead of fighting foreign giants on their own turf, a closed loop is created where it is advantageous to be "one of our own."
What exactly is being discussed
Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Grigorenko outlined the direction at the Eastern Economic Forum platform: there are industries where priority for domestic software should be given by default. This refers to sovereign and national models. In education, the measure will only affect the school and preschool level, and implementation will go through the government procurement mechanism. This means schools will only purchase solutions that have passed the "filter" for Russian origin.
Until 2032, the possibility of using foreign AI remains even in priority areas, but with an important caveat: organizations that choose a foreign solution will not be able to claim government support during implementation. In effect, this creates a powerful economic incentive for businesses to switch to the Russian stack now in order to retain access to benefits and government contracts.
In parallel, a package of incentives for developers is also being developed. Tax coefficients on expenses, preferential VAT on AI services, exemption of specialized data centers from property tax, and expansion of IT benefits are being discussed. The entire structure fits into a single logic: priority industries generate demand, tax incentives reduce the cost of creation, and the transition period until 2032 provides time for restructuring.
Practical implementation and forecasts
These initiatives are not just declarations. The Autonomous Non-Profit Organization "Digital Economy" has already proposed to the Ministry of Digital Development an investment deduction of up to 20 billion rubles and accounting for expenses on creating models at triple the amount. Grigorenko himself emphasizes that the authorities do not consider rejecting AI in principle. At the macro level, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov calls the implementation of AI and automation new points of economic growth, and his department already uses algorithms in preparing the federal budget.
Specific projects are also telling. The "Opturana" platform was the first in the world to optimize public transport schedules using AI, reducing inter-route idle time in Moscow by 34%. In construction and housing and communal services, they plan to transfer half of the processes to AI by 2030. At the same time, the share of products with real agency functionality in the Russian registry is estimated at only 5% versus 39% in the world—the gap is enormous, and it will need to be closed.
The market is growing rapidly: according to the baseline forecast of AIANA, the industry's volume will increase from 316.1 billion to 830 billion rubles by 2030, and under a favorable scenario it will reach 1.12 trillion. Competition for a share in priority industries is becoming a matter of survival for developers.
My conclusion: this is not just about import substitution. This is the formation of a sovereign digital infrastructure, where the state acts as customer, regulator, and investor simultaneously. For the crypto industry and blockchain projects, this is a signal: integration with state AI systems could become a new growth driver, but it will require full transparency and compliance with national standards.