The Russian government is actively working on scenarios for the mandatory implementation of domestic AI solutions in key sectors, from defense to education and electoral processes. This is not about a total ban on foreign technologies, but about creating powerful economic incentives that will make the use of Russian hardware and software the only profitable strategy for businesses.
Against the backdrop of preparing by-laws for the recently enacted AI law, the government is discussing the delineation of areas where priority will by default be given to national developments. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Grigorenko at the VEF-2026 platform outlined the contours of this approach: in a number of industries, the use of exclusively Russian models will become mandatory, and the Cabinet of Ministers is bringing this position to concrete proposals.
Sovereign AI as an economic lever
The key mechanism of influence is not a ban, but the removal of preferences. According to my information, organizations that continue to use foreign AI solutions in priority industries will not be able to qualify for tax benefits and state support when implementing technologies. This effectively creates a strict economic incentive for businesses: switching to the domestic stack is more advantageous in advance in order to retain access to government contracts and benefits.
It is important to emphasize: in education, the measure will only affect the school and preschool levels. Implementation is planned through the government procurement mechanism. At the same time, until 2032, a transition period remains in place when the use of foreign AI in priority areas is still possible, but without state support. This time lag gives the market the opportunity to restructure without shock therapy.
The support structure: from investments to taxes
In parallel, the authorities are also building the "carrot." The Autonomous Non-Profit Organization "Digital Economy" has proposed to the Ministry of Digital Development an investment deduction of up to 20 billion rubles and accounting for expenses on creating models at triple the amount. Earlier, tax coefficients on AI expenses, reduced VAT on services, and exemption of specialized data centers from property tax were discussed. This entire structure fits into a unified logic: priority industries create demand for sovereign models, and tax incentives make their creation cheaper.
The trend toward technological sovereignty is also visible at the macro level. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov at the G20 meeting in the United States directly called the implementation of AI and automation new points of economic growth. His department already uses algorithms in preparing the federal budget. The Ministry of Construction has set the ambitious task of transferring half of processes in construction and housing and communal services to AI by 2030. Examples already exist: the "Opturana" platform was the first in the world to optimize public transport schedules using AI, reducing inter-route downtime in Moscow by 34%.
My view of the situation
Russia is moving not along the path of isolation, but along the path of managed protectionism. However, the key challenge is the real maturity of domestic solutions. The share of products with genuine agentic functionality in the Russian registry is estimated at only 5% versus 39% globally. While the market is growing, from 316.1 billion to 830 billion rubles by 2030 according to the AIANA baseline forecast, the fight for a share in priority industries will become a matter of survival for developers. The authorities are betting that economic incentives will prove more effective than administrative bans, and this is a sensible approach. The only question is whether domestic vendors will manage to close the technological gap before the transition period ends.