Friday's U.S. labor market statistics came as a cold shower for investors in risk assets. The release of Nonfarm Payrolls data triggered a sharp drop in both the leading cryptocurrency and the safe-haven metal. The market had priced in a soft scenario, but reality turned out to be far more "hawkish."
The numbers that broke the trend
In August, the U.S. economy added 162,000 new jobs. That was nearly three times the consensus forecast from analysts, who had expected only 56,000. At the same time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly revised data for previous months: the July figure changed from a decline of 23,000 to an increase of 21,000, and June's from 20,000 to 31,000. The combined revision over two months added 55,000 jobs. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% (to $37.75), matching an annual pace of 3.1%—above the forecast 3.0%.
The key signal for the market is not so much the new jobs themselves, but the upward revision of prior data. This finally puts to rest the narrative of a sharp cooling in the labor market and gives Fed Chair Kevin Warsh a strong argument for a rate hike at the September meeting.
Immediate reaction: BTC and gold under pressure
Before the report's release, bitcoin was trading around $81,340. However, within a single five-minute candle, the price plunged to $79,661, losing 1.80%. The latest trades were around $79,860. Gold, which typically acts as a safe haven, also failed to hold up: the metal fell from $4,473 to $4,376 per ounce, a decline of 1.75%.
The volatility triggered a cascade of liquidations in the crypto market. In just one hour, long positions worth $202 million were forcibly closed, and the daily liquidation volume reached $768.54 million. Leverage that seemed profitable just yesterday became a catalyst for the crash today.
Macroeconomic backdrop: the rate is back in play
As recently as late August, the probability of a Fed rate hike was estimated at around 66%. However, this week, following cautious comments from Governor Christopher Waller, the odds of a pause increased, supporting gains in both bitcoin and gold. Now, the employment data dramatically changes the picture: a tight labor market strengthens the arguments of "hawks" at the Federal Reserve.
The next major trigger will be the release of inflation data on September 11—just five days before the Fed meeting. If the CPI comes in below expectations, the market may partially recover Friday's losses. But if inflation surprises to the upside, pressure on risk assets will persist.
My analysis: Friday's crash is a classic example of how the market falls into the trap of its own expectations. Traders spent too long ignoring the resilience of the U.S. economy, clinging to hopes for loose monetary policy. Now that reality has burst into their positions, volatility will only intensify ahead of the CPI data. For long-term investors, this is a signal to reassess risk management rather than panic—the fundamental drivers for cryptocurrencies remain intact, but the short-term macroeconomic backdrop has become noticeably more complex.