The cost of flash memory for the future iPhone 18 Pro has nearly quadrupled over the past year. This is unprecedented pressure on production costs, and it appears Apple will have to pass some of these expenses on to end consumers. As early as next week, we will likely see new price tags across the entire iPhone lineup.
Apple's margin under threat: why memory has become a luxury
Analysis of supply chains shows that contract prices for memory for the Pro model with 256 GB of built-in storage have quadrupled compared to the same period last year. This is not just inflation—it is a tectonic shift in the semiconductor market.
My calculations and industry data converge on one point: even aggressive optimization of other components will not be able to offset this surge. Cupertino finds itself facing a tough dilemma: either cut its own profits or raise retail prices. Given that the company has already raised the cost of Mac, iPad, and Apple TV this summer, holding the line on iPhone prices looks increasingly unsustainable.
Key point: for the Pro model with 256 GB in the third quarter of 2026, the cost of memory will be nearly 4 times higher than a year earlier. Raising retail prices is becoming increasingly inevitable while production costs remain at such a high level.
Forecast: a modest increase of $100
According to current estimates, the iPhone 18 Pro will cost roughly $100 more than its predecessor, the iPhone 17 Pro. This forecast looks far more conservative than earlier and more alarming estimates of $250–300.
Apple will not pass the entire increase in memory production costs (nearly fourfold in a year) onto buyers. Instead, the company will bet on offsetting it through growth in services revenue. There is also consumer caution at play: the manufacturer clearly does not want to scare off its audience with a sharp price jump.
This trend will hit hardest those who are used to upgrading their smartphone annually. High prices will force many to extend the lifespan of their current devices, slowing down the replacement cycle. For investors, this factor is especially important amid recent volatility in AAPL stock and uncertainty in the company's leadership.
The Apple Upgrade installment program, which allows paying in parts, could help soften the blow to the wallet. Exact figures will appear immediately after the announcement of the new lineup next week.
My verdict: a $100 increase is just the tip of the iceberg. In the medium term, if memory prices do not come down, Apple will have to reconsider not only price tags but also the very structure of its model lineup, possibly making base versions less attractive to push toward more profitable configurations.