An analysis of the component market reveals a troubling trend for Apple: the cost of memory for the flagship iPhone 18 Pro has surged nearly fourfold over the past year. This unprecedented rise in the cost of a key component puts the manufacturer before a tough dilemma—either cut its own margins or pass the costs on to the end consumer. In my estimation, the second scenario is becoming increasingly likely, and we are talking about a price increase of roughly $100.
Rising memory prices squeeze Apple's margins
The situation is critical: Apple's attempts to offset the higher memory costs by saving on other components are not yielding the desired effect. Memory expenses for the Pro version with 256 GB in the third quarter of 2026 will be nearly four times higher than a year earlier. This is not just market volatility, but a structural shift that cannot be ignored.
Notably, Apple has so far held back on raising iPhone prices, although it already increased the price tags on Mac, iPad, and Apple TV this summer. The company explained this by saying it had delayed the decision for as long as it could. Now that memory costs have reached a critical level, further delay in adjusting smartphone prices is becoming economically unviable.
Forecast: price increase of about $100
According to current calculations, the iPhone 18 Pro will cost roughly $100 more than its predecessor, the iPhone 17 Pro. This forecast looks more conservative than earlier estimates from some analysts, who cited figures of $250–300. However, even such a moderate increase could have significant consequences for the market.
Apple will not fully pass on the nearly fourfold rise in memory costs to buyers. Instead, the company will likely bet on growing revenue from services. Analysts also note consumer caution: the manufacturer will try not to scare people off with a sharp price jump, especially amid recent volatility in AAPL shares and leadership reshuffles.
Those who upgrade their iPhone annually will feel the changes the most. High prices could push many users to hold onto their current devices longer. This trend is especially important for investors right now, as the market closely watches every move Apple makes.
The previously announced Apple Upgrade installment program, which allows paying in parts rather than the full amount at once, could soften the blow to wallets. Exact data will become known with the release of the new iPhone lineup next week.
My take: The rise in memory prices is not a short-term spike, but a reflection of long-term changes in the semiconductor supply chain. For Apple, a $100 price increase is not just cost compensation, but also a test of price elasticity of demand in the premium segment. If the market accepts the new price, it will set a precedent for further increases in flagship prices in future cycles.