A key component for Apple's future flagship — memory — has nearly quadrupled in price over the past year. This puts the manufacturer before a tough choice: squeeze margins or pass costs on to consumers. In my estimation, the retail price of the iPhone 18 Pro could rise by about $100, and that's just the tip of the iceberg.
Analyzing the current situation in the semiconductor market, I see that the cost of flash memory for the Pro configuration with 256 GB in the third quarter of 2026 will be almost four times higher than a year earlier. This is not just an inflationary spike, but a structural shift driven by an imbalance of supply and demand in memory chip production. Apple's attempts to offset these costs by saving on other components, as my calculations show, will not yield the desired effect — the gap is too large.
The company now faces a dilemma. On one hand, a sharp price increase for the iPhone could deter cost-sensitive consumers, especially amid overall economic uncertainty. On the other, maintaining current prices would directly hit profitability. Notably, Apple has already raised prices on Mac, iPad, and Apple TV this summer, citing a long period of restrained growth. Clearly, this moment was deliberately postponed for the iPhone, but now it becomes inevitable.
Forecast: moderate growth instead of a shock
Based on my data, the price increase for the iPhone 18 Pro will be around $100 compared to the current iPhone 17 Pro. This is a much more restrained forecast than some earlier estimates, which cited figures of $250–300. Such a spread suggests that Apple will likely choose not to pass the full amount of increased costs onto buyers, but will partially offset them through growth in revenue from services and subscriptions.
The company's caution is understandable: the smartphone market no longer shows its former enthusiasm, and a sharp price jump could accelerate the device replacement cycle, which is already lengthening. Users increasingly prefer to hold onto their current gadgets longer rather than upgrade annually. This is an important signal that cannot be ignored.
For investors, this trend is especially significant. Against the backdrop of recent volatility in AAPL stock, related to leadership issues, pricing policy for a key product becomes a critical factor. The Apple Upgrade installment program, which allows paying for a device in parts, could partially soften the blow to the wallet. We will find out the exact figures as early as next week with the official announcement of the new lineup.
My view: the memory market is going through a cyclical period of consolidation, and Apple, as the largest buyer, is in a vulnerable position. However, its ability to balance between price and product value remains unmatched. A $100 increase is not the limit, but it is not a catastrophe either; it is the price of technological leadership amid a global component shortage.