Analyzing the supply chain and cost dynamics of components for Apple's future flagships, I have concluded that the semiconductor memory market is undergoing a tectonic shift. Over the past twelve months, the procurement price for memory modules needed to produce the iPhone 18 Pro has risen nearly fourfold. This is an unprecedented surge that presents the Cupertino giant with a difficult choice: sacrifice margins or pass the costs on to the end consumer.
My calculations, based on industry data, show that for the configuration with 256 GB of built-in storage, the cost of components in the third quarter of 2026 will be several times higher than a year earlier. Apple's attempts to offset this increase by saving on other elements, such as chips or the chassis, will not yield the desired result. The shortage and frenzied demand for HBM and NAND memory from the AI segment have created such strong pressure that traditional cost optimization methods are powerless here.
Price forecast: moderate growth amid pressure
The most likely scenario I see is an increase in the recommended retail price of the iPhone 18 Pro by approximately $100 relative to its predecessor. This is a more conservative estimate than some earlier forecasts, which suggested a rise of $250–300. Apple, aware of the fragility of consumer demand in the current macroeconomic environment, is unlikely to make a sharp price jump. Instead, the company will probably focus on increasing revenue per user by expanding its services ecosystem.
Notably, Apple has already raised prices on its Macs, iPads, and Apple TV this summer, citing precisely the rise in production costs. For the iPhone line, the company held the line longer, but now, it seems, there is no room to retreat. We will learn the exact figures next week when the new lineup is unveiled.
My view: This trend is a vivid example of how volatility in the raw materials and components market, triggered by the artificial intelligence boom, directly affects the wallets of ordinary users. For investors, this is a signal of a possible slowdown in device upgrade cycles, which could put pressure on Apple's long-term growth metrics, especially amid the recent turbulence surrounding the company's stock.