In recent days, there has been a noticeable increase in the movement of funds on the largest exchanges, which traditionally precedes periods of heightened volatility. The inflow of liquidity into spot venues indicates a growing risk appetite among institutional players, but the structure of these flows requires close attention.
Analysis of on-chain data shows that the bulk of deposits comes from addresses that have not conducted transactions for more than six months. This is a classic pattern of behavior for "old whales," who lock in profits after a long period of accumulation. Such dynamics often signal local market overheating, especially when it comes to bitcoin approaching its all-time highs.
At the same time, the opposite picture is observed in altcoins: the inflow of funds into derivatives platforms is rising, pointing to the opening of leveraged long positions. This asymmetry between the spot and futures markets creates the groundwork for a "short squeeze" scenario or, conversely, a cascade of liquidations in the event of a sharp trend reversal.
The key support level remains the $67,000–$68,500 zone, where large buy orders are concentrated. A break below this range would open the path to a correction toward the $63,000 area, accompanied by an accelerated outflow of stablecoins from exchanges. However, if bullish momentum holds above $70,000 for 48 hours, the likelihood of a new record high increases significantly.
An additional pressure factor is the macroeconomic agenda: the release of U.S. consumer price index data this week could trigger a reassessment of expectations regarding the Fed's rate. Under current conditions, the high correlation of digital assets with the technology sector makes the market vulnerable to any changes in the regulator's rhetoric.
My expert view: The increase in exchange deposits is a double-edged signal. On one hand, it confirms institutional interest; on the other, it creates excess supply for sellers. A sensible strategy now is not to chase every candle, but to wait for clear confirmation of direction. Volatility will be cruel to those who enter the market without a clear risk management plan. Watch trading volume at key levels—it, not price, will reveal the true intentions of major players.