Bitcoin apparently passes through the same price levels twice — first at the peak of euphoria, and then at the peak of fear. This pattern can be traced throughout the asset's history and deserves close attention.
The power-law model describes Bitcoin's long-term growth as a single smooth curve. On a logarithmic chart, it turns into a straight line with three boundaries: lower, middle, and upper. The price fluctuates between them almost all the time, and a break above the upper or middle line usually coincides with a bull market.
What the power-law model shows
After each bull rally, Bitcoin accelerates to a peak, then falls and trades lower for a long time. A few years later, the price returns to the same peak value again — but by that time the lower boundary of the model has risen to that level. Thus the former high turns into a new low: previously the price hit it from above, now it rests on it from below.
On the chart, these returns are marked by horizontal lines that stretch from the top of each cycle to the point where the price touched the same level again:
- around $20 — from the 2011 peak to 2013;
- around $100–200 — within 2013;
- around $1,000 — from late 2013 to 2017;
- around $20,000 — from late 2017 to 2021;
- around $60,000 — from 2021 to the present.
Why the levels repeat
The logic is as if Bitcoin must pass through every significant price twice: once at the peak of euphoria and once at the peak of fear. The first time, the market drives the price to a peak; the second time, the already cooled-down market returns to the same value, but now it is a bottom, not a top.
The last line on the chart starts from the 2021 peak and reaches the current moment, where the price is again holding at the lower boundary of the model. If the pattern holds, the price of the past peak will eventually turn into a reliable support zone — buying on fear at the lower boundary of the model could become a winning strategy.
Cryptalist analysis: The power-law model demonstrates a stable structural logic in which past highs consistently become accumulation zones. For institutional investors, this highlights the value of previous-cycle levels as a guide for averaging positions. However, the model describes only a historical trend and does not guarantee its repetition — the durability of support will depend on the macroeconomic backdrop and capital inflows.