Analysts have identified a unique calendar pattern: October 28 has remained the most profitable day of the year for the S&P 500 index for decades. This time, however, the key factor is not statistics but the Federal Reserve's decision, which could completely reverse the seasonal trend.
A study by Carson Investment Research and FactSet covering the period from 1950 to 2025 records the index's average result on this exact date at +0.50%. For a single trading day, this is a significant figure. However, this is statistics spanning 75 years, not a forecast — the pattern reflects only the historical frequency of gains but does not guarantee a repeat.
Why Investors Should Exercise Caution
October 28 is precisely the date scheduled for the Fed meeting — the U.S. central bank that determines the key rate and, consequently, the cost of borrowing for companies and households. For the stock market, such days are traditionally associated with heightened volatility.
Since Kevin Warsh took the helm of the Fed, the market's reaction to the regulator's decisions has been predominantly negative. Three examples are telling: in June, the S&P 500 lost 1.21%, in July the decline was 1.52%, and in September the index fell by 0.45%. Seasonality promises growth, but recent Fed meeting experience signals downside risks.
The cryptocurrency market in recent years has been moving in tandem with U.S. stocks, especially on Fed meeting days. If the index rises, bitcoin will most likely go up as well — and vice versa. If the regulator under Warsh once again disappoints the market, cryptocurrencies, as a riskier asset, will traditionally fall more than stocks.
Cryptalist Analysis: The statistical anomaly of October 28 is of interest more as an illustration of the limitations of seasonal analysis than as a trading signal. The decisive factor is the Fed's rhetoric and the rate trajectory, and bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 on meeting days remains consistently high. Institutional investors would be well advised to assess their risk profile through the lens of the macroeconomic backdrop rather than calendar patterns.