Markets are pricing in a shift in the US political landscape. Polls show that voters of both parties fear the concentration of control over Congress by their opponents, and investors are worried about how a Democratic majority could rewrite the terms for oil, artificial intelligence, and risk regulation.

According to Polymarket, Democrats have a 93% chance of taking the House of Representatives and a 65% chance of taking the Senate. The World Gold Council identifies four areas that, under such an outcome, will directly affect gold, bitcoin, and stocks.

Budget decisions and gold

The first area is spending. With a Democratic majority, it will be harder for the White House to pass laws that increase the budget deficit. Confrontation in Congress reduces the likelihood of major new budget initiatives.

  • Gold may come under mixed pressures. A smaller deficit will reduce concerns about government debt and support demand for Treasury bonds and the dollar, which will weaken the metal. But if Democrats lower trade tariffs, budget revenues may decline, the deficit will grow again — and that will support gold.
  • Stocks: a decline in US bond yields could help the market — borrowing costs will decrease and the present value of future earnings will rise. Historically, the S&P 500 since 1970 has usually risen after midterm elections regardless of the outcome.
  • Bitcoin (BTC) often moves in the opposite direction to the dollar: a record-strong negative correlation has been recorded. If the dollar strengthens due to a reduction in the deficit, this will negatively affect bitcoin, although the relationship periodically weakens.

Risk of escalation of the conflict with Iran

The second area is military funding and its link to oil. According to a CNBC poll, 21% of Democrats fear that Republicans will continue to fund military action against Iran. Among Republicans, 11% fear that Democrats will stop the campaign. With a Democratic majority, Congress may limit war spending and push toward de-escalation.

For now, oil points in the opposite direction. Brent is trading around $114, and rising energy costs have intensified inflation concerns. Traders estimate the probability of a Fed rate hike in December at about 80%.

  • Gold benefits from de-escalation: cheaper oil will lower inflation expectations, yields, and the dollar. On Friday, the metal fell below $4,000 — its lowest since mid-July; on Monday, gold traded at $4,010.48.
  • Stocks will receive support if cheaper oil leads to lower yields and inflation risks.
  • Bitcoin this month reacted to news around Iran: reports of escalation knocked the price down by 2–5% intraday. The conclusion of an agreement that weakens the dollar could support the price. BTC is currently trading at $79,894 — down 1.2% over the day.

AI rules and a blow to tech stocks

The third area is artificial intelligence regulation. With a Congress under Democratic control, federal support for AI may be cut or requirements tightened. Among Democrats, 19% fear that a Republican Congress will not regulate AI and data centers; among Republicans, 6% fear that Democrats will overreach.

  • Gold may benefit from slower growth, lower yields, and a weaker dollar.
  • Stocks, especially technology stocks, will take the most noticeable hit. Investors are already doubting whether spending on hyperscale infrastructure will pay off. Weakness in the tech sector will lead to lower household wealth and consumer spending.
  • Bitcoin will see a dual effect: a weaker dollar will help, but mass sell-offs in the technology sector could drag BTC down along with the stock market.

Governing the country through executive orders

The fourth area is the power of the executive branch. 44% of all respondents fear that Donald Trump will exceed constitutional authority (among Democrats — 74%). Among Republicans, 16% fear that a Democratic Congress will impeach him. If bills are blocked, the administration will increasingly resort to executive orders and states of emergency — legal disputes and political fluctuations will raise political risks.

  • Gold usually benefits from such uncertainty, and central banks will more actively diversify reserves in favor of the metal.
  • Stocks will face difficulties — less predictability in policy negatively affects valuation.
  • Bitcoin carries risks related to the executive branch: most of the current rules for cryptocurrencies are approved by the SEC and CFTC, not Congress, and new agency leadership may revoke current norms.

By estimate, three of the four areas generally support gold. For bitcoin, the dollar plays the key role; for stocks, yields matter. According to Polymarket, Republicans still have an 8% chance of retaining a majority in the House of Representatives and a 36% chance in the Senate.

Cryptalist analysis: The scenario of Democratic control over Congress creates an asymmetric risk configuration: gold receives support in three of the four areas at once, while bitcoin becomes hostage to dollar dynamics and its correlation with the tech sector. The key volatility trigger remains the oil factor and the related inflation expectations that determine the trajectory of the Fed rate. Institutional investors should consider gold as the main beneficiary of political uncertainty, and for cryptocurrencies — remain selective until the contours of regulatory policy become clear.