A Monte Carlo simulation produces a median scenario for Bitcoin (BTC) at $1.03 million by February 2033. However, the trajectory of this path is far from smooth growth: before the final surge, the model incorporates a 43% drop from the peak of the next cycle in 2028.
The calculation is based on thousands of random runs estimating the probability distribution of future prices. The model was trained on quotes from the market's inception in 2018 to the low of 2022. Early data, when a 100x gain was commonplace, was deliberately excluded from the sample: today the asset's dynamics are driven by derivatives, spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and cascading liquidations.
The model accounts for diminishing returns
The key parameter is power-law decay with a coefficient of 0.45, which reduces returns with each new cycle. Additionally, the model accounts for the phase Bitcoin is in within the market cycle. This is a fundamentally different approach than classical theories that rely on the immutability of historical patterns.
Range of bullish and bearish scenarios
In the median scenario, Bitcoin reaches a peak of $413,000 by December 2028, and by April 2030 drops to $234,000. The 29th percentile value, covering 29% of all simulations, forms a maximum of $241,000 in December 2028 and a minimum of $126,000 in April 2030. Historically, the low of each new cycle has bounced off the previous high — and this path follows that pattern.
In extreme cases, the 90th percentile leads to $1.44 million in March 2029, while the 10th percentile leads to $51,900 in April 2030. In all four noted scenarios, price peaks occur between December 2028 and March 2029. At the same time, the "500-day rule" after the halving points to a selling period in 2029.
The model assumes that future returns will resemble the 2018–2022 period. Any structural changes in the market could break this dependency. Traditional analysis methods undergo a similar test: in June, Bitcoin traded below all levels of the rainbow chart, which had already failed when BTC broke through its lower boundaries.
Cryptalist analysis: Monte Carlo stochastic models are valuable not for point forecasts but for their probability distribution — and in this sense, the $241,000–$413,000 range at the 2028 peak looks far more informative than the median $1 million by 2033. Diminishing returns with a coefficient of 0.45 reflect a fundamental shift: as Bitcoin becomes institutionalized, it loses the explosiveness of its early cycles, and its trajectory increasingly depends on ETF inflows and derivatives market liquidity. Investors should treat such calculations as a risk management tool, not as a guarantee of future returns.