Analyzing the current semiconductor market conditions, I come to the conclusion that Apple is facing unprecedented pressure on the cost of its flagship products. This concerns memory components, whose prices have shown explosive growth over the past year, and this will directly impact consumers' wallets.
The Rising Cost of Memory: A Fundamental Shift
My calculations, based on data from industry sources, show that the procurement cost of memory for the iPhone 18 Pro configuration with 256 GB in the third quarter of 2026 will be almost four times higher than a year earlier. This is not a temporary fluctuation, but a sustained trend driven by a shortage of manufacturing capacity and high demand from the AI sector. Such a jump in cost puts Apple before a tough dilemma: either to reduce its already shrinking margin, or to pass the costs on to the end user.
It is telling that the Cupertino company's attempts to offset the rising cost of memory by saving on other components are not yielding the desired results. This confirms that the memory market is in a phase of structural growth, not a cyclical correction. Given that Apple has already raised prices on Mac, iPad, and Apple TV this summer, keeping the iPhone price at its previous level looks increasingly unrealistic.
Price Forecast: Cautious Optimism
The most likely scenario, in my assessment, is an increase in the recommended retail price of the iPhone 18 Pro by approximately $100 compared to its predecessor. This figure looks far more moderate than earlier pessimistic forecasts, which cited a range of $250–300. This discrepancy is explained by the fact that Apple, aware of market sensitivity, especially amid recent stock volatility and leadership changes, will seek to minimize the price shock for consumers.
Of course, the company will not be able to fully absorb the fourfold increase in costs. Instead, I expect a shift in focus toward increasing revenue from services and software subscriptions, which will partially offset the decline in profitability in the hardware segment. For consumers, this means that the device upgrade cycle may lengthen, as many will prefer to use their current models for longer.
As a mitigating factor for buyers, the Apple Upgrade installment program will come into play, allowing payments to be spread over time. The exact figures and final price tags will be announced next week when the new lineup is unveiled.
Expert opinion: From the perspective of long-term investment attractiveness, the current situation may paradoxically strengthen Apple's position. The ability to navigate periods of rising costs without losing audience loyalty is a key test for any technology corporation. Successful management of this crisis will be a positive signal for the market, demonstrating the brand's pricing power.