The ten-year rolling return on US Treasury bonds has fallen below zero — for the first time since December 1959 and September 1981. The indicator has gone negative by 1%, which is equivalent to roughly minus 10% in cumulative result over the decade. This is the worst period for the world's safest asset in the past hundred years.

How the record low took shape

The ten-year rolling return reflects the result for an investor who bought Treasury securities exactly ten years ago and held them until today. The current window covers the period from 2016 to 2026. In the 1930s–1940s, the indicator held around 4–5%, by the late 1950s it had declined to almost zero, and the peak came in the early 1990s, when the ten-year result exceeded 16%. Since then the value has declined smoothly, and after 2020 it collapsed from 8–9% to negative values. The indicator went negative back in 2025 — the current minus 1% is a continuation of a multi-year trend, not a sudden collapse.

The reason lies in the bonds themselves: their price moves in the opposite direction from rates. In July 2016, the yield on 10-year Treasury securities fell to 1.37%, and in August 2020 it hit a new low of 0.51%. Then in 2022 the Fed sharply raised rates to fight inflation — old low-coupon bonds lost value, and over the decade their holders ended up in the red.

What this means for investors

For bondholders, this means that the world's safest asset failed to make money for ten years straight, and when adjusted for inflation, the real losses were even greater. At the same time, both previous lows ended in a reversal: September 1981 marked the start of the greatest bull market in bonds in history. However, the sample here is tiny — just two cases in a hundred years do not guarantee a repeat.

For crypto investors, this story matters for three reasons:

  • Treasury yields set the benchmark for all other assets, and a reversal in bonds upward as rates decline will make money cheaper — this has historically supported bitcoin and altcoins;
  • a losing decade for the safest asset reinforces the narrative of bitcoin and gold as protection against the debasement of government debt;
  • stablecoin issuers hold reserves in Treasury bonds, and falling yields reduce their interest income, while rising yields would increase it.

There is also a flip side. Minus 1% may turn out not to be the bottom but an intermediate point if inflation and the US budget deficit push yields higher again. In that case, risk assets, including cryptocurrency, will come under pressure.

Cryptalist analysis: The current dynamics of Treasury bonds form an important macroeconomic backdrop for digital assets: the unprofitability of the traditional "safe haven" strengthens the case for diversification into bitcoin and gold. However, institutional investors should bear in mind that a reversal in the bond market depends on the trajectory of the Fed rate and fiscal policy — a sustained decline in yields would become a powerful catalyst for risk appetite, whereas a new wave of inflation could reverse this scenario.