Bitcoin is closing a second consecutive October with a negative result: since the start of the month, the price has fallen by 4.1%. However, price dynamics are only the top layer of the picture. Four key indicators — the structure of the long-term trend, participant positioning, on-chain metrics, and the macroeconomic backdrop — continue to signal persisting recovery potential.
Analytical data demonstrate signs of a local bottom forming. At the same time, on-chain reports record a temporary decline in new buyer activity, and historical November statistics call for restraint in forecasts.
Bitcoin holds above the 50-week moving average
Despite the drawdown, the structure of the long-term chart remains intact. The 200-week moving average acts as support in a bear market, while the 50-week average marks the upper boundary of the range. In June, Bitcoin tested support, and in September it broke above the 50-week average after 44 weeks below it.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $79,935 — roughly 5% above the current 50-week average, which stands at $75,812.
Historically, when the 50-week average is crossed after at least 20 weeks below it, the coin has never dropped more than 8.4% relative to the breakout level within the following year.
Fast capital has already left the market
The net long position of asset managers in Bitcoin futures on the CME has shrunk by 57% relative to the weeks of Bitcoin's all-time high. Nine investment firms, including Millennium Management and Goldman Sachs, reduced their spot Bitcoin ETF portfolios by the equivalent of 68,000 BTC. At the same time, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June low.
Buyers are cooling off, and retail is exiting the market
Large funds have reduced activity. On-chain data record the actions of retail investors: about 70% of short-term Bitcoin holders remain in profit, whereas at the end of September nearly all were in the green. Since October 16, the number of non-financial Bitcoin wallets has decreased by approximately 30,000 — historically, retail capitulation has more often led to positive price dynamics than a mass influx of new buyers at rally peaks.
U.S. national debt reinforces long-term expectations
U.S. national debt reached $40.44 trillion by October 20, and the deficit for the fiscal year totaled $1.99 trillion. Refinancing such debt at rates around 5% will increase pressure on the authorities, forcing them to tolerate inflation. This makes fixed-supply assets such as Bitcoin more attractive — although the factor takes years to form and provides no guidance for short-term forecasts.
November statistics do not guarantee growth
Since 2010, November has closed in the green in 63% of cases, with a median gain of 10.26%. However, after a losing October, growth occurred in only 2 of 5 years. Last year, a 3.95% decline in October was followed by a 17.49% drop in November. If Bitcoin consolidates below $79,000, the bottom-formation signal will be delayed; a recovery to $82,500 will strengthen it.
Cryptalist analysis: The market is in a redistribution phase — speculative capital has left, while institutional flows into ETFs remain positive, creating a risk asymmetry in favor of buyers. The key trigger for confirming a reversal will be holding above the 50-week average and the October close. If it consolidates below $79,000, the delayed-bottom scenario will become the base case, and volatility in November will remain elevated.