Coinbase and Circle shares have fallen sharply in recent weeks, even though bitcoin managed to rise over the same period. The gap between the price of the first cryptocurrency and Coinbase stock has become so significant that some investors have seriously considered buying the exchange's shares on the dip. However, a low price in itself is not yet a signal to act.
Bitcoin rose, but crypto company stocks did not
Not long ago, shares of Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange, almost mirrored bitcoin's movements. At the 2025 highs, bitcoin was worth almost $125,000, and Coinbase stock was around $410. Then both assets fell. In spring 2026, bitcoin dropped to roughly $60,000, and the exchange's shares fell below $160.
In autumn 2026, their paths diverged. Bitcoin climbed back above $80,000, while Coinbase shares remained around $170. This is precisely where the question arises: has an opportunity emerged to profitably buy the exchange's stock amid a market recovery?
The same thing happened in recent weeks with shares of Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin — a sharp decline without recovery.
A cheap stock is not always a profitable buy
The key valuation principle here shifts from price to the company's main business metric — the thing its revenue depends on most. It is important to understand what expectations for this metric are already priced into the stock. If it is deteriorating, the investor risks falling into a value trap: the stock looks cheap, the investor buys it, and it does not rise because the company has business problems. In this case, the low price is not a market error but a fair valuation.
Buying the dip now is risky. Circle's risks are noticeably higher than Coinbase's.
Circle's main driver — the volume of USDC in circulation and interest rates — is deteriorating: USDC circulation has shrunk to roughly $73 billion from $77 billion in the first quarter. Of $1.4 billion in revenue for the first half of the year, about $819 million went to distribution partners. Rating agency Mizuho downgraded the stock to "underperform" with a $50 target due to competitor Open USD, and the CFO sold 15,000 shares at $90 — a classic set of value-trap signs. There is no point in buying before the November 4 report.
Coinbase looks stronger. Retail revenue fell 31%, and the share of bitcoin transactions in revenue dropped to 12% from a historical 50%. The third-quarter report will be released on October 29. The risk of a fourth consecutive earnings miss is being discussed — so the gap on the chart may not close just because bitcoin bounced.
Cryptalist analysis: The divergence between bitcoin's price and the shares of crypto infrastructure companies reflects not a market error but a reassessment of fundamental revenue models. As long as stablecoin circulation and retail activity metrics remain weak, the cheapness of Circle and Coinbase stock is a fair reflection of risks, not a buy signal. Institutional investors would be wise to wait for third-quarter reports and confirmation of a turnaround in operating metrics before considering entering the dip.