The artificial intelligence boom will end with a stock market crash, while the rest of the economy is already mired in a deep recession. This is the scenario for the coming months outlined by an entrepreneur and investor, owner of Bolt Storage and Somewhere.com, who published eight forecasts about who is paying for the AI race and what will happen when venture money runs dry.

The list turned out grim. It covers a stock market bubble, fragile power grids, subsidies, loans, and a major data leak. At the end, it names those who, according to the author, will profit from the crisis.

The stock market will crash along with the AI bubble

What is happening in the industry is characterized as a "mega-bubble." Too much has been invested in data centers, models, and chips, but the hype is not backed by real business. It is also acknowledged that it is unclear how these companies will start making money. Switching from one model to another costs almost nothing, so many players are expected not to survive. The rest of the economy, by this assessment, is already in a deep recession.

The weakness of power grids will become apparent in the coming months

AI consumes colossal amounts of energy. Rates are rising, making everyday life more expensive and worse in quality. Criticism of data centers arose precisely because of electricity. The energy system is extremely fragile, and its weakness will become obvious in the coming months.

AI prices will be raised, and users will leave

AI is expensive, and prices for users are artificially low — subsidies run throughout the entire chain. A subscription costs $20 or $200 a month, but the real costs are ten times higher. The difference is covered by venture money, and it is burning at enormous scale. As soon as prices are raised, users will flee, and investors will be left with losses.

A major leak is coming

What exactly will be the target — a bank or one of the models — is not specified. People themselves let bots into their bank accounts, email, and other services, and this will turn into big problems.

Chips become obsolete in a year and a half

Billions go into training an AI model, and on the day of release it is already behind competitors. China has cheaper electricity and more chips. The accelerators companies are buying now become obsolete in 18 months. At the same time, businesses are forced to pay every month to support and update their AI tools. All of this is described as a mess.

Energy companies will abandon contracts

Under political pressure, energy suppliers will terminate unprofitable agreements with data centers and model developers. Then the cost of electricity will skyrocket. Companies will have to either raise AI prices and watch users go to the next model, or burn even more venture capital. In this situation, no one wins.

The credit market will be the first to fall

It is already difficult for data centers to borrow money for GPUs ten years ahead if the hardware becomes obsolete in a year and a half. As a result, there will be many unfinished facilities that can neither negotiate energy rates nor buy chips, because no one will lend to them. Money will get scared as soon as markets go down, and that will be the end of the show.

Dark times and those who will profit from them

The period in the markets, according to the forecast, will be very grim. Three groups will win:

  • owners of assets that generate real income — real estate and businesses;
  • those who plan investments in advance and do not take on large debts;
  • those who have cash on the balance sheet — they will accumulate more assets and gain exceptional wealth.

The author of the forecast himself prefers real estate investments.

Cryptalist analysis: The scenario exposes the fundamental vulnerability of the current AI race: capital expenditures are growing faster than revenue, and demand subsidization masks the absence of a sustainable model economics. For the crypto market, this is a twofold signal — a correction in risk assets will hit correlation with tech stocks, but capital seeking protection from infrastructure and credit risks has historically flowed into decentralized and yield-bearing instruments. Investors should assess in advance the resilience of their portfolios to a scenario of sharp liquidity contraction.