Bitcoin is once again rising faster than gold, and this is forming a rare technical signal. The BTC price in ounces of the precious metal has returned above its 200-day moving average after 316 days below this line. In history, a similar reversal has three times preceded a powerful rally in the first cryptocurrency.

What the indicator shows

The 200-day average is the average price of an asset over the last 200 trading days. As long as an asset trades below it, the trend is generally considered weak. A return above the line is usually interpreted by traders as a shift in trend to upward. In this case, the asset is the bitcoin-to-gold ratio, that is, the number of ounces that can be bought for one BTC.

The sample records only three similar cases when the ratio spent more than 300 days below the average and then returned above it. Here is how bitcoin behaved in the following 12 months after each of them:

  • June 2015 — a gain of 142%;
  • April 2019 — a gain of 42%;
  • January 2023 — a gain of 84%.

Now one bitcoin again buys 20 ounces of gold. The ratio has risen 64% from its March low. At the same time, the sample is small — only three past signals — and previous results guarantee nothing.

Growth despite rates and the dollar

The reversal occurred under difficult conditions. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose to 5.31% — the highest in more than 13 years. The yield on 30-year bonds reached 5.67%. The DXY dollar index, which reflects the US currency against a basket of other currencies, returned to around 102. Such conditions are usually considered unfavorable for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Despite this, bitcoin has gained 37% from its June low, while gold has remained flat over the same period. The fact that BTC is rising amid high rates and a stronger dollar points to the asset's hidden strength — the market resembles a compressed spring.

Cryptalist analysis: The BTC/gold ratio above its 200-day average while remaining resilient to tight monetary policy signals a flow of capital in favor of bitcoin as a higher-yielding defensive asset. However, the statistical base is limited to three observations, so the signal should be viewed as confirming rather than a standalone trigger. For institutional investors, the key will be the ratio holding above 20 ounces for several weeks — this would confirm a trend change.