Analyzing the current market conditions for components, I come to the conclusion that Apple is facing unprecedented pressure on the margins of its key smartphone lineup. The cost of memory for the future iPhone 18 Pro is showing explosive growth: over the past twelve months, this component has nearly quadrupled in price. Such sharp dynamics are directly linked to the global shortage and supply-demand imbalance in the semiconductor industry, which presents the manufacturer with a difficult choice.
My calculations, based on industry data, show that for the Pro configuration with 256 GB of built-in storage, the purchase price in the third quarter of 2026 will be nearly four times higher than a year earlier. This is not just a market fluctuation, but a structural shift that even aggressive cost-optimization measures on other components cannot offset. Apple's attempts to cut expenses in other areas are not yielding the desired effect, and the company now faces a dilemma: sacrifice profit or pass the costs on to the end consumer.
Price forecast: moderate growth
Based on my estimates and analysis of supply chains, the most likely scenario is an increase in the retail price of the iPhone 18 Pro by approximately $100 compared to its predecessor. This is a more conservative forecast than some bold expectations voiced by certain analysts, who have cited figures in the range of $250–300. However, I believe that Apple is aware of the risks associated with a sharp price jump and will act cautiously to avoid triggering an outflow of price-sensitive buyers.
Notably, the company has already raised the prices of Mac, iPad, and Apple TV, citing a long period of restrained growth. Now, it seems, it is the turn of smartphones. It is noteworthy that Apple will not fully pass the entire increase in production costs onto buyers, but will partially offset it through the development of its services segment and software subscriptions. This confirms my hypothesis that the manufacturer is betting on long-term monetization of its customer base rather than one-off hardware sales.
In a broader context, this trend could accelerate the device upgrade cycle. Many users will likely prefer to extend the lifespan of their current gadgets, which will put pressure on sales volumes next year. For investors, this is an important signal, especially against the backdrop of recent volatility in AAPL shares caused by management reshuffles. The upcoming announcement of the new lineup next week will give us exact figures, but it is already clear that the era of affordable flagships is coming to an end.
My expert view: The rise in memory prices is not a temporary phenomenon, but a consequence of long-term investment cycles in chip manufacturing. I expect cost pressure to persist over the next few quarters, which will push Apple and other manufacturers to seek alternative pricing strategies and strengthen the role of subscription services in their revenue structure.