For the first time in the entire history of observations, Apple shares are moving in the opposite direction from the Nasdaq 100 index: the company's stock is rising while the rest of the technology sector is essentially standing still. This divergence gives Apple holders in their portfolio a real chance to mitigate a potential drawdown in tech stocks.
Owners of index funds on the Nasdaq 100 should be on alert: the growth of one of the index's largest constituents is no longer accompanied by a rally in the other technology companies. If the sector's weakness persists, the returns on such investments may turn out lower than what has been customary in recent years.
How Apple shares diverged from the sector
The three-month correlation between Apple shares and the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped to −0.12. This indicator reflects how synchronously the two prices move: at a value of 1 they change fully in tandem, and below zero — in opposite directions. The metric has gone negative for the first time in the entire history of observations since the early 1980s and has stayed there for two consecutive months.
Apple shares have gained 9.7% over these two months, while the Nasdaq 100 rose only 0.2%. The correlation was +0.90 back in June 2025, when Apple stock was rising together with the shares of other tech companies. The indicator never dropped below +0.30 from 2006 to 2025, and the current gap between Apple and the rest of the sector looks unprecedented. That said, the three-month metric describes a short span, so the divergence may prove temporary.
Why the index is stalling while Apple shares rise
The stagnation of the technology sector may be explained by doubts about the payback of artificial intelligence spending: Jeremy Siegel of WisdomTree allows for a decline in the Nasdaq Composite of up to 30% if these investments fail to meet expectations. AI-related companies account for a high share of the index, so any shift in sentiment around the technology affects it as a whole.
Against this backdrop, Apple shares hit an all-time high on September 21, and the company's market capitalization exceeded $5 trillion thanks to demand for the iPhone and growth in the services business. NVIDIA's forward multiple — the share price relative to expected earnings — meanwhile fell sharply from levels above 25 at the start of the year: investors are now willing to pay less for the AI leader.
The Nasdaq's dependence on AI may increase: Anthropic has filed documents for an IPO and an application for a listing on this exchange. The company's cash reserves have reached $131.7 billion — more than NVIDIA and Apple combined — but its lease and minimum spending obligations amount to about $587 billion.
Cryptalist analysis: The divergence between Apple and the Nasdaq 100 reflects a fundamental shift in the structure of demand for technology stocks: the market is reassessing the risks of the AI segment and reallocating into stocks with stable cash flow. For portfolio strategies, this is a signal to revise the weights of the technology block and hedge concentration risk in index funds. The durability of the trend will depend on whether the weakness of the index's AI component persists after a possible Anthropic IPO.