Bitcoin's network computing power has recovered by 21% after a prolonged decline, and this recovery has become the largest in absolute terms since 2018. Over 102 days, miners added 185 EH/s — a signal that deserves close attention, although it does not guarantee price growth.
The hash rate (total computing power of miners) reached a record 1134 EH/s at the end of October 2025 on a 14-day average basis. By February 2026, the value had fallen by 23% — the deepest decline since the mining ban in China in 2021. Part of the decline was explained by a winter storm, but the market settled on the version about miners leaving for the artificial intelligence (AI) sector.
After the first rebound, capacity declined again until July 17. Since then, the hash rate has grown by 21%, to 1064 EH/s, and lags the peak by about 6%. Miners added 185 EH/s over 102 days — the largest increase in absolute terms among all recoveries since 2018, although in percentage terms the result is not so impressive.
Why capacity growth matters for the network
Each additional exahash makes an attack on the Bitcoin network more expensive. According to analysts, miners are installing new equipment at minimal margins, which speaks to their confidence in the future. In addition, mining serves as a flexible load: if necessary, the power system can shut it off.
At the same time, hash rate growth by itself does not predict price. At the same stage of previous recoveries, BTC was worth more a year later in six out of nine cases and usually gained about 66%. For comparison: if you bought the coin on a random day since 2018, a year later it was worth more in 65% of cases, by almost 47%. Currently, the Bitcoin price is 35% below its all-time high.
Why hash rate growth does not remove risks
Even with high capacity, the question remains of who it is concentrated among. Supporters of a fork to the Blake2b algorithm call Bitcoin insecure due to the concentration of hash rate among several pools, and their like-minded associates have already launched a separate XBT network. Miners, meanwhile, risk the most: they are ramping up capacity at very low profitability, and even a slight price decline could make mining unprofitable.
The BTC price is not yet reacting to the network recovery: the coin fell below $80,000 even against the backdrop of US Treasury bond purchases. This is consistent with the thesis that price cannot be predicted from hash rate alone. Some traders are waiting for an even deeper decline due to the trend breakdown in AI company stocks, although over the long term forecasts remain optimistic.
Cryptalist analysis: The 21% hash rate recovery reflects rather a redistribution of capital within the mining industry than the formation of a sustained bullish impulse. The market is still ignoring this signal due to pressure from macro factors and weakness in related risk assets, so the sustainability of the trend will be determined not by network capacity, but by liquidity inflows and price dynamics. Investors should view hash rate as an indicator of miners' confidence, not as a standalone trigger for entering a position.