After three months of prevailing sales, residents of Kazakhstan in July–September 2026 again began actively buying cash rubles at exchange offices. The Russian currency has weakened against the tenge, making trips and purchases in Russia noticeably cheaper, but if the downward trend continues, the purchased currency may lose value.
The turning point in the sentiment of exchange office clients came after April and May, when sales volumes of rubles consistently exceeded purchases. The strengthening of the tenge proved disadvantageous for Kazakh exporters with ruble revenue: when converted, it turns into a smaller amount in the national currency.
Where and why demand for rubles is growing
Net operations with cash rubles at exchange offices in Kazakhstan turned positive again in July: clients bought more Russian currency than they sold, with the difference amounting to 126.5 million tenge. In June the picture was the opposite — exchange office visitors sold rubles worth 17.5 billion tenge more than they bought. The predominance of sales also persisted in April and May, and the last time buyers outpaced sellers was in March.
In August, exchange offices sold clients rubles worth almost 6.2 billion tenge more than they bought from them, and in September — by 4.6 billion tenge. The leaders in purchases of cash rubles in Q3 were the East Kazakhstan Region on the border with Russia and the Karaganda Region in the center of the republic.
In Astana and the Pavlodar Region, which also borders Russia, rubles were most often exchanged for tenge. The shifts in demand coincided with the strengthening of the tenge against world currencies and the ruble: in March, one ruble was worth about 6.5 tenge, by mid-July — approximately 6, and in September — about 5.3. Since March, the ruble has become about 18% cheaper for Kazakhstanis.
What else is changing in Kazakhstan's finances
Kazakh businesses will have to take into account more than just the tenge exchange rate: starting in 2027, large companies will undergo an ESG review before receiving a loan. Such an assessment will identify the borrower's environmental and social risks, and the availability of financing will depend on its results.
In parallel with the flow of funds between currencies, the authorities are strengthening financial oversight: a neural network will search for unjustified spending in the budget, and four key financial systems of the country will be merged into a single ecosystem. For citizens this means more transparency: the Smart Data Finance system already cross-checks data from 80 sources and finds discrepancies between official income and property.
Investors looking for an alternative to cash currency are getting a new instrument: the first digital financial assets (DFAs) have appeared on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE). Back in May, the National Bank assigned the exchange the status of the first platform operator under number 001, and now KASE organizes the issuance, circulation, and trading of DFAs on a regulated venue.
Cryptalist analysis: The return to net purchases of cash rubles reflects not so much confidence in the Russian currency as households' reaction to the 18% depreciation of the ruble against the tenge and cross-border trade. For the market, this is a signal of the tenge's continued volatility and growing interest in diversifying savings, including through KASE digital financial assets. The sustainability of the trend will depend on the ruble's dynamics and further liberalization of Kazakhstan's regulated infrastructure.