Bitcoin is trading only slightly above the average price at which traders acquired it in recent months. This fragile balance turns the $77,100 mark into a critical point: if the level holds, holders will retain a foothold for growth; if it falls, buyers who find themselves at a loss will start selling on every bounce.
According to the Trader On-chain Realized Price metric, which reflects the average purchase price of BTC that last moved on the blockchain one to three months ago, on November 1 this level stood at $77,140, while the bitcoin price held around $77,880. For those just considering a purchase, this is a chance to buy the coin at almost the same price as most recent market participants — but not a guarantee of growth.
Why the $77,100 mark matters for the market
During growth phases, this level has repeatedly acted as support when the price corrected toward it. If the price moves below it, the same mark can turn into resistance: traders who find themselves at a loss use the return to the breakeven point to exit their positions.
Notably, the metric grew steadily while bitcoin was correcting, and the gap between it and the price narrowed noticeably. This does not make $77,100 a level for automatic buying, but this is exactly where it will become clear whether the market can absorb selling or whether recent buyers will come under pressure.
How the $77,000 zone is assessed by other indicators
Selling pressure is also visible in the Coinbase Premium Index: on October 29 it dropped to −0.27%, and there has been no such discount on bitcoin on the US venue relative to Binance since the FTX collapse in November 2022. If demand in the US remains weak, holding the $77,100 mark will be harder.
At the same time, some traders hold the opposite view: bitcoin will no longer drop to $70,000, and the zone from $76,500 to $81,800 is seen as an accumulation area before growth. A short decline to $77,000–78,000 — almost to the cost basis of recent buyers — is allowed, after which a rise to $90,000 is expected by the end of November or early December.
According to long-term models, bitcoin also looks undervalued: a power-law formula derived back in 2013 currently gives about $97,000 per coin, and by January 2030 points to $251,000 — although this is an extrapolation of historical data, not a guarantee.
Cryptalist analysis: The market has found itself at a point where the cost basis of recent buyers coincides with a zone of heightened vulnerability — weak demand on the US venue and a negative Coinbase premium increase the risk of a break of the $77,100 level. Holding above this mark will be a signal of sales absorption and will preserve a constructive structure for recovery, whereas a confident breakdown below could turn the zone into resistance and prolong the correction.