In October, South Korea exported $56.4 billion worth of semiconductors — 259% more than a year earlier. Virtually all of the growth came from memory chips for AI. For investors in Samsung and SK Hynix, this confirms that demand is not weakening, while for the country's economy it represents a risk of growing dependence on a single industry.
October became the second-largest month in the country's history: Korea sold more semiconductors abroad only in September, when a record of $60.3 billion was set. About $50.1 billion of October exports came from memory chips — DRAM, high-bandwidth HBM for AI accelerators, and server SSDs. A year earlier, Korea shipped $15.7 billion worth of chips abroad, of which $10.9 billion was memory. The contract price of 16 Gb DDR5 rose from $48 to $50.
Semiconductors accounted for 49% of all Korean exports, while total shipments grew 93.7% — the fastest since 1974. Sales to the US nearly tripled, to $24.9 billion. This directly indicates where AI data center construction is currently unfolding — even as chipmaker stocks fell last week despite orders not declining.
Capacity sold out through 2029
Korean brokers are revising upward their profit forecasts for Samsung and SK Hynix for 2027. Meritz Securities expects Samsung's operating profit next year to reach 654 trillion won and SK Hynix's to reach 481 trillion won. Combined, that is about 1,135 trillion won, or roughly $790 billion, for the two memory makers in just one year.
Hana Securities raised its 2027 estimate for Samsung by 20% and expects SK Hynix to earn more than 100 trillion won in a single quarter for the first time, in the fourth quarter alone. SK Hynix said that DRAM and HBM output is effectively already sold out through 2029. Wall Street investors still view memory manufacturing as a cyclical business prone to downturns after booms, while Korean analysts continue to improve their expectations.
Samsung, meanwhile, is rapidly catching up with its competitor. In the third quarter of 2025, SK Hynix held 56% of the HBM market and Samsung 23%. By the second quarter of 2026, the shares stood at 50% and 33%, and the gap narrowed from 33 to 17 percentage points. Next-generation HBM4 memory gave Samsung its breakthrough: its revenue from it more than tripled over the quarter and reached about 60% of HBM sales. SK Hynix is not losing pace either: customer requests are more than double its capacity, so the market is no longer structured on a "winner takes all" basis.
Why stocks fell despite rising orders
The strong exports came in a month when chipmaker stocks were being sold off en masse. The KOSPI index fell more than 8% on October 15, the exchange halted trading for 20 minutes, and Samsung and SK Hynix shares fell more than other large companies amid fears that the Fed would raise rates again.
The KOSPI opened down 3.5% on October 20 amid doubts about the return on AI spending and ended up roughly 39% below its June peak. Borrowed money amplified the sell-off: forced liquidations of positions opened with broker credit exceeded 50 billion won for four consecutive days.
By October 28, Korean chipmaker stocks had become cheaper than during the 2008 crisis: the KOSPI Semiconductor index was valued at just 2.8 times expected annual earnings, versus a historical average of about 9.8. Judging by October exports, demand is not weakening yet, but a low price-to-earnings ratio alone does not guarantee share price growth if analysts begin to lower expectations.
Cryptalist analysis: Korea's record export momentum reflects the fundamental strength of the memory cycle rather than short-term speculation: HBM capacity sold out through 2029 and rising DDR5 contract prices create visible cash flow for Samsung and SK Hynix. However, the divergence between record shipments and historically low multiples signals that the market is pricing in the risk of a slowdown in AI capex and tighter monetary policy. For the crypto segment, this is an important indicator: the dynamics of AI infrastructure supply remain correlated with demand for computing resources and sector tokens.