Goldman Sachs analysts have revised their Brent oil forecast significantly upward: by December 2026, a barrel could cost $105 instead of the previously expected $90. This scenario promises additional returns for investors in oil companies and commodity funds, but at the same time threatens higher prices for fuel, transportation, and goods for businesses and consumers.
The bank now estimates the average price for 2027 at $88 per barrel instead of the previous $80. The key driver of the revision is persistent risks of supply cuts. Buyers are willing to pay a premium for fear of supply disruptions, and market participants are increasingly pricing in an escalation in the Middle East after the US midterm congressional elections, which could further restrict supplies from the region.
Scenario range — from $60 to $130
The bank's experts also allow for a sharper jump in prices. If production in the Persian Gulf remains 3.5 million barrels per day below the 2025 level, the average Brent price in 2027 could be $130 per barrel. Conversely, with a rapid recovery of production in the region, prices could fall to $60–70 — and then those who buy oil assets at current prices will incur losses.
Market signals have already appeared: on October 30, WTI rose to $106.2 per barrel — the highest since mid-September — amid reports from Iran about tankers damaged by mines. In October, Brent gained 13.6%, and by the beginning of November, North Sea oil is trading around $110.
What expensive oil means for markets
The impact is also felt on Asian stock exchanges: on October 21, the KOSPI index rose 3.54%, and the Nikkei 225 — 1.43%, when Brent fell to $108.79 on expectations of US-Iran negotiations. Cheaper raw materials reduce inflation fears, so a new jump in prices could hit shares of chipmakers and other growth companies.
Through inflation, expensive oil also affects the cost of money: global central banks will likely enter 2027 with even tighter monetary policy. For borrowers, this means expensive loans; for investors, pressure on stocks and bonds; and for depositors, a chance to receive elevated income for longer.
Cryptalist analysis: Goldman Sachs' forecast revision reflects a fundamental shift in the assessment of geopolitical risks rather than short-term speculation. The wide range of scenarios — from $60 to $130 — indicates high uncertainty and increased volatility in commodity assets. For the crypto market, this is a double-edged factor: rising inflation expectations may support demand for bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, while tighter monetary policy could limit risk appetite.