Bitcoin has closed above its 50-week moving average for the seventh consecutive week — a key indicator that has historically separated bear and bull markets. Even the hack of Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, amounting to more than $6 billion, could not knock the price off this level.

A moving average represents the average price over a given period. For Bitcoin, the 50-week line has for many years served as the boundary between phases of growth and decline: while the price is below it, the market is considered to be falling, and a return to and holding above it signals that the worst is over.

Bitcoin fell below this line in November 2025 and spent 44 weeks there. In June, the price dropped to the 200-week average — a deeper support level — and bounced off it. At the end of September, Bitcoin rose above the 50-week line again and has not fallen below it since.

The last week closed at $78,229 — 3.3% above the 50-week average ($75,728) and 16% above the 200-week average ($67,456).

What the history of past cycles has shown

Since 2011, 13 such returns of the price above the 50-week line have been recorded. The outcome depended directly on how prolonged the preceding decline was. If the price stayed below the line for only a short time — up to 14 weeks — then in seven out of nine cases it subsequently fell by more than 25%. However, after prolonged bearish phases lasting longer than 20 weeks, the picture changed dramatically:

  • the price never dropped below the return level by more than 8.4%;
  • a year later, Bitcoin was worth 55–1497% more;
  • the previous all-time high was surpassed within 33–83 weeks.

The current downturn lasted 44 weeks, meaning it falls into the second category. In past cycles, after such a long decline, Bitcoin reversed upward every time, not downward.

What this means for investors

The key takeaway: those who wanted to sell have already sold. Hedge funds and large speculators who entered Bitcoin at the 2025 peak have cut their positions by more than half. Nine major funds, including Millennium, Brevan Howard, and Goldman Sachs, withdrew 68,000 BTC from Bitcoin ETFs. At the same time, all other ETF holders were buying — since the June low, funds have increased their holdings by 87,000 BTC.

When large sellers leave and long-term buyers remain, it becomes harder for the price to fall and easier for it to rise. This is exactly what the accumulation phase looks like, which in past cycles preceded a new rally.

There is also a macroeconomic argument. US national debt has grown to $40.44 trillion, the budget deficit has reached almost $2 trillion, and the yield on ten-year bonds rose to 5.31% in October. A state with such debts benefits from devaluing its money, so holding dollars is now riskier than stocks or Bitcoin with its limited issuance.

At the same time, no one is promising guaranteed growth. The signal can be considered false if a weekly candle closes below the 50-week average and the price does not return above it within a month. Currently, this level is around $75,728, just 3% below the current price. Bitcoin is still 35% cheaper than its peak, but it has already proven its ability to reach $125,000 — and there are no visible reasons why it could not repeat this again.

Cryptalist analysis: A return above the 50-week average after a 44-week decline is a statistically significant regime-change signal, not short-term noise. The structure of ETF flows (outflow of speculative capital alongside accumulation by long-term holders) confirms the formation of a base. The key risk is losing the $75,728 level; holding it preserves the recovery scenario, whereas consolidating below it would require a revision of the bullish hypothesis.