The number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network has nearly halved from its December 2024 peak. In scale, the current decline is already comparable to the 2018 crash — and for investors this is an alarming signal: with weak network activity, demand for the coin may remain sluggish for a long time.
The 30-day average number of active addresses as of November 1 was 629,000. That is 43% below the local peak of December 2024, when the metric reached 1.1 million. Over the past week, the indicator lost another 1%.
Address activity approaches the 2018 downturn
In 2018, the same indicator fell by 50% — from 1.1 million to 547,000, and it took only three months, from January to April. The current decline has stretched over almost two years. In depth, the downturns are comparable, but activity is now contracting much more slowly.
The monthly average is now 10% below the yearly average, which stands at 702,000 addresses. A return above this level would show that over the past month network activity has again exceeded the average level for the year.
BTC transfer volume holds above average
The 30-day average daily transfer volume since December 10, 2024 has declined by only 5.4% — from 865,000 to 819,000 BTC. The number of active addresses over the same period fell by 43%, so following the drop in activity, the volume of coins moved has not noticeably decreased.
The monthly average transfer volume fell 2.5% over the week but remained 5.5% above the yearly average — 776,000 BTC. It is important to understand: the figure of 819,000 BTC does not mean the volume of purchases or sales — the metric includes all transfers on the network, including repeated movements of the same coins.
A decline in the number of addresses also does not equal an outflow of users, since one person can own multiple addresses. Both metrics weakened over the past week, so there are no signs of a sustained recovery in activity yet. We could speak of an improvement if the monthly average of active addresses returns above the yearly average and transfer volume remains above its annual average level.
Coinbase discount and Binance hack add risks
The decline in network activity coincides with a cooling of interest among American investors: bitcoin on Coinbase is trading at its largest discount to Binance since the FTX collapse in November 2022. The discount points to weak demand or intensified selling, while spot trading volume from the exchange's retail clients fell 59% in the third quarter.
The same week both network metrics weakened saw the Binance hack: on the night of October 29-30, attackers stole about $6.3 billion — a record theft in the industry's history. The BTC price on the news dropped below $77,000, and the exchange suspended withdrawals, reminding holders of the risks of storing coins on centralized platforms.
Cryptalist analysis: The divergence between the sharp drop in active addresses and the relatively stable transfer volume points to a structural rather than panic-driven nature of the network's cooling — large holders continue to move coins while retail activity fades. Combined with the Coinbase discount and the aftermath of the Binance hack, this creates an environment in which a sustained recovery in demand should be expected only after monthly activity returns above the yearly average.