Bitcoin's capitalization structure shows an alarming imbalance: holders whose positions are at a loss have invested almost twice as much in the asset as those currently in profit. This skew creates a serious supply overhang over the market and could slow the recovery of prices for several months.
According to on-chain analytics estimates, about $707 billion invested in BTC currently remains at a loss, while only $380 billion is in profit. The metric is calculated based on the average acquisition price of real coins excluding futures contracts and is updated daily, dividing spot positions into profitable and unprofitable ones.
Why Bitcoin is struggling to grow
It is this imbalance that is holding back prices. The more holders are "underwater," the stronger the selling pressure at every local price rally. Many investors seek to break even as soon as the price returns to their purchase level — and such selling forms dense resistance.
After a prolonged downturn, the wait for recovery looks long. According to analysts' estimates, the market will need several months to return a significant portion of capital to the profitable zone. Without this, there will be no full-fledged growth: betting on a rapid BTC surge upward is risky — most likely, the market will correct gradually as coins transition from loss-making sellers to new buyers at a lower price.
Factors accelerating and slowing recovery
Recent market participants are currently closest to a loss: the average price at which BTC was acquired by them over the past one to three months was $77,140 as of November 1, with the rate at around $77,880. If prices fall below this mark, their investments will also go into the red and intensify selling pressure.
There are no signs of a rapid revival in the Bitcoin network yet. The 30-day average number of active addresses has dropped to 629,000, which is 43% below the December 2024 peak. With such weak activity, demand capable of buying coins from holders of loss-making positions risks remaining sluggish for a long time.
Stock market dynamics could provide some support. Historically, the S&P 500 in midterm election years has always risen in November after a weak October — by an average of 4.5%, although the sample since 1950 is small and includes only five cases. The index did decline in October 2026, and rising stocks typically increase investors' willingness to take risk and could bring closer the moment when most of the investments in BTC return to profit.
Cryptalist Analysis: The ratio of loss-making to profitable capital at nearly 2:1 forms sustained resistance to growth and makes a sharp rally scenario unlikely. Cryptalist's institutional view is that the market awaits a phase of gradual "digestion" of supply: the key triggers for acceleration will be the recovery of network activity and an improvement in risk appetite on traditional markets, while weakness in on-chain metrics will keep the price range-bound.